#!/usr/bin/env python3 """ 老狼退款用户 — 行课进度 × 完课时长 × 退款率交叉分析 规则: - 购买 L1+L2 联报 → 看 L1 行课 - 购买 L2 课包 → 看 L2 行课 新增:完课时长 = SUM(bi_user_component_play_record.interval_time) / 60000 分钟 """ import os, sys, re import psycopg2 import pandas as pd from collections import defaultdict DB_HOST = "bj-postgres-16pob4sg.sql.tencentcdb.com" DB_PORT = 28591 DB_USER = "ai_member" DB_NAME = "vala_bi" def get_password(): pw = os.environ.get("PG_ONLINE_PASSWORD", "") if pw: return pw secrets_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "..", "secrets.env") if os.path.exists(secrets_path): with open(secrets_path) as f: for line in f: if line.startswith("PG_ONLINE_PASSWORD="): return line.strip().split("=", 1)[1].strip("'\"") raise RuntimeError("PG_ONLINE_PASSWORD not found") def get_conn(): return psycopg2.connect(host=DB_HOST, port=DB_PORT, user=DB_USER, password=get_password(), dbname=DB_NAME, connect_timeout=120) def lesson_bucket(n): if n == 0: return "0课时" elif n <= 3: return "1-3课时" elif n <= 7: return "4-7课时" elif n <= 15: return "8-15课时" elif n <= 30: return "16-30课时" elif n <= 60: return "31-60课时" else: return "60课时以上" def time_bucket(minutes): if minutes == 0: return "0分钟" elif minutes <= 10: return "1-10分钟" elif minutes <= 30: return "11-30分钟" elif minutes <= 60: return "31-60分钟" elif minutes <= 120: return "61-120分钟" elif minutes <= 300: return "121-300分钟" else: return "300分钟以上" BUCKET_ORDER = ["0课时", "1-3课时", "4-7课时", "8-15课时", "16-30课时", "31-60课时", "60课时以上"] TIME_BUCKET_ORDER = ["0分钟", "1-10分钟", "11-30分钟", "31-60分钟", "61-120分钟", "121-300分钟", "300分钟以上"] L1_GOODS = {57, 60, 63} L2_GOODS = {31, 32, 33, 54} L1L2_GOODS = {61} def classify_orders(goods_ids): gs = set(goods_ids) result = [] has_l1l2 = bool(gs & L1L2_GOODS) has_l2 = bool(gs & L2_GOODS) if has_l1l2: result.append(("L1+L2联报→看L1", "L1")) if has_l2 and not has_l1l2: result.append(("仅L2→看L2", "L2")) if has_l1l2 and has_l2: result.append(("联报+仅L2→看L2", "L2")) return result def main(): input_file = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "output/销售线索_用户分析.xlsx" df_in = pd.read_excel(input_file, dtype=str) user_ids = [int(x) for x in df_in["用户ID"].dropna().unique()] print(f"老狼线索用户: {len(user_ids)} 人") conn = get_conn() cur = conn.cursor() # ── 0. 获取 L1/L2 chapter_id ── cur.execute("SELECT id, course_level FROM bi_level_unit_lesson WHERE course_level IN ('L1','L2')") l1_chapters = set() l2_chapters = set() for ch_id, lv in cur.fetchall(): if lv == "L1": l1_chapters.add(ch_id) else: l2_chapters.add(ch_id) print(f" L1: {len(l1_chapters)}, L2: {len(l2_chapters)}") # ── 1. 订单 ── ph = ",".join(["%s"]*len(user_ids)) cur.execute(f""" SELECT account_id, goods_id, goods_name, trade_no, pay_success_date, pay_amount_int, order_status, key_from FROM bi_vala_order WHERE account_id IN ({ph}) AND deleted_at IS NULL AND pay_success_date IS NOT NULL AND order_status IN (3,4) ORDER BY account_id, pay_success_date """, user_ids) orders = cur.fetchall() print(f" 订单: {len(orders)}") # ── 2. 退款 ── trade_nos = [o[3] for o in orders if o[3]] refund_set = set() for i in range(0, len(trade_nos), 500): batch = trade_nos[i:i+500] p2 = ",".join(["%s"]*len(batch)) cur.execute(f"SELECT DISTINCT trade_no FROM bi_refund_order WHERE trade_no IN ({p2}) AND status=3 AND deleted_at IS NULL", batch) for (tn,) in cur.fetchall(): refund_set.add(tn) # ── 3. 角色(含生日、年龄)── cur.execute(f""" SELECT id, account_id, nickname, birthday FROM bi_vala_app_character WHERE account_id IN ({ph}) AND nickname IS NOT NULL AND nickname!='' AND deleted_at IS NULL """, user_ids) chars = cur.fetchall() char_ids = [c[0] for c in chars] account_chars = defaultdict(list) char_info = {} # char_id -> (nickname, birthday, age) from datetime import date today = date.today() for cid, aid, nick, bday in chars: account_chars[aid].append(cid) age = None if bday: try: bd = pd.Timestamp(str(bday)[:10]).date() age = today.year - bd.year - ((today.month, today.day) < (bd.month, bd.day)) except: pass char_info[cid] = (nick, str(bday)[:10] if bday else '', age) print(f" 角色: {len(chars)}") # ── 4. 课时完成 + 获取 chapter_unique_id ── # char -> {chapter_id -> chapter_unique_id} (取首次完成的记录) char_chapter_cuid = defaultdict(dict) # character_id -> {chapter_id -> chapter_unique_id} char_lessons_l1 = defaultdict(int) char_lessons_l2 = defaultdict(int) all_cuids = set() for tbl_idx in range(8): table = f"bi_user_chapter_play_record_{tbl_idx}" for i in range(0, len(char_ids), 2000): batch = char_ids[i:i+2000] p2 = ",".join(["%s"]*len(batch)) try: cur.execute(f""" SELECT user_id, chapter_id, chapter_unique_id FROM {table} WHERE user_id IN ({p2}) AND play_status=1 AND deleted_at IS NULL """, batch) for uid, ch_id, cuid in cur.fetchall(): # 取首次完成的记录 if ch_id not in char_chapter_cuid[uid]: char_chapter_cuid[uid][ch_id] = cuid if ch_id in l1_chapters: char_lessons_l1[uid] += 1 elif ch_id in l2_chapters: char_lessons_l2[uid] += 1 all_cuids.add(cuid) except Exception as e: print(f" warn {table}: {e}") print(f" chapter_unique_id 数: {len(all_cuids)}") # ── 5. 从 component_play_record 获取完课时长 ── print(f" 正在查询完课时长({len(all_cuids)} 个 cuid)...") cuid_duration = defaultdict(int) # chapter_unique_id -> 总耗时(毫秒) cuid_list = list(all_cuids) for tbl_idx in range(8): table = f"bi_user_component_play_record_{tbl_idx}" for i in range(0, len(cuid_list), 2000): batch = cuid_list[i:i+2000] p2 = ",".join(["%s"]*len(batch)) try: cur.execute(f""" SELECT chapter_unique_id, SUM(COALESCE(interval_time, 0)) FROM {table} WHERE chapter_unique_id IN ({p2}) AND deleted_at IS NULL GROUP BY chapter_unique_id """, batch) for cuid, total_ms in cur.fetchall(): if total_ms: cuid_duration[cuid] += total_ms except Exception as e: print(f" warn {table}: {e}") print(f" 有耗时记录的 cuid: {len(cuid_duration)}") # ── 6. 账户信息 ── cur.execute(f"SELECT id, created_at FROM bi_vala_app_account WHERE id IN ({ph}) AND status=1", user_ids) account_info = {aid: reg for aid, reg in cur.fetchall()} conn.close() # ── 6.5 加微判断(vala_class.student_info)── wechat_bound = set() try: conn_class = psycopg2.connect(host=DB_HOST, port=DB_PORT, user=DB_USER, password=get_password(), dbname='vala_class', connect_timeout=30) cur2 = conn_class.cursor() cur2.execute(f"SELECT DISTINCT vala_account_id FROM student_info WHERE vala_account_id IN ({ph})", user_ids) wechat_bound = {r[0] for r in cur2.fetchall()} cur2.close() conn_class.close() print(f" 加微判断: {len(wechat_bound)}/{len(user_ids)} 人已加微") except Exception as e: print(f" 加微判断跳过: {e}") # ── 7. 按用户+等级汇总课时数和耗时 ── # 先算每个角色在每个等级的总耗时 char_duration_l1 = defaultdict(int) char_duration_l2 = defaultdict(int) for cid, chapter_map in char_chapter_cuid.items(): for ch_id, cuid in chapter_map.items(): dur = cuid_duration.get(cuid, 0) if ch_id in l1_chapters: char_duration_l1[cid] += dur elif ch_id in l2_chapters: char_duration_l2[cid] += dur # ── 8. 构建分析数据 ── user_orders_map = defaultdict(list) for o in orders: aid, gid, gn, tn, pd_, amt, os_, kf = o user_orders_map[aid].append({ "goods_id": gid, "goods_name": gn, "trade_no": tn, "pay_date": pd_, "amount": amt/100.0, "order_status": os_, "key_from": kf, "is_refunded": tn in refund_set, }) rows = [] for aid in user_ids: my_orders = user_orders_map.get(aid, []) my_chars = account_chars.get(aid, []) reg_time = account_info.get(aid) total_l1 = sum(char_lessons_l1.get(c, 0) for c in my_chars) total_l2 = sum(char_lessons_l2.get(c, 0) for c in my_chars) dur_l1 = sum(char_duration_l1.get(c, 0) for c in my_chars) dur_l2 = sum(char_duration_l2.get(c, 0) for c in my_chars) total_orders = len(my_orders) refunded_orders = sum(1 for o in my_orders if o["is_refunded"]) total_gmv = sum(o["amount"] for o in my_orders) total_refund = sum(o["amount"] for o in my_orders if o["is_refunded"]) all_refunded = (refunded_orders == total_orders and total_orders > 0) has_refund = refunded_orders > 0 goods_ids = [o["goods_id"] for o in my_orders] cats = classify_orders(goods_ids) for cat_label, watch_level in cats: lessons = total_l1 if watch_level == "L1" else total_l2 dur_ms = dur_l1 if watch_level == "L1" else dur_l2 dur_min = round(dur_ms / 60000.0, 1) if dur_ms else 0.0 avg_min_per_lesson = round(dur_min / lessons, 1) if lessons > 0 else 0.0 # 构建角色信息 char_details = [] for cid in my_chars: nick, bday_str, age = char_info.get(cid, ('?', '', None)) age_str = f'{age}岁' if age is not None else '?' char_details.append(f'{nick}({age_str})') rows.append({ "用户ID": aid, "注册时间": reg_time, "购买分类": cat_label, "行课等级": watch_level, "角色数": len(my_chars), "角色信息(名称+年龄)": "; ".join(char_details), "完成课时数": lessons, "总完课时长(分钟)": dur_min, "平均每课时长(分钟)": avg_min_per_lesson, "订单数": total_orders, "退款订单数": refunded_orders, "GMV": round(total_gmv, 2), "GSV": round(total_gmv - total_refund, 2), "是否退款": "是" if has_refund else "否", "是否全部退款": "是" if all_refunded else "否", "是否加微": "是" if aid in wechat_bound else "否", "购买课包": ";".join(o["goods_name"] for o in my_orders), }) df = pd.DataFrame(rows) df["课时桶"] = df["完成课时数"].apply(lesson_bucket) df["时长桶"] = df["总完课时长(分钟)"].apply(time_bucket) # ── 输出 ── print("\n" + "="*70) print("老狼退款用户 — 行课进度 × 完课时长 × 退款率交叉分析") print("="*70) for cat_label in ["L1+L2联报→看L1", "仅L2→看L2"]: df_cat = df[df["购买分类"] == cat_label] if len(df_cat) == 0: continue print(f"\n{'='*60}") print(f"【{cat_label}】 {len(df_cat)} 个用户-分类记录") print(f"{'='*60}") # A. 按完成课时数分桶 print("\n ┌─ 按完成课时数分桶 ─────────────────────") bucket_stats = df_cat.groupby("课时桶").agg( 用户数=("用户ID","count"), 退款用户数=("是否退款", lambda x: (x=="是").sum()), 平均课时=("完成课时数","mean"), 平均完课时长=("总完课时长(分钟)","mean"), 中位完课时长=("总完课时长(分钟)","median"), ).reindex(BUCKET_ORDER).fillna(0) bucket_stats["退款率%"] = (bucket_stats["退款用户数"]/bucket_stats["用户数"]*100).round(1) bucket_stats["平均课时"] = bucket_stats["平均课时"].round(1) bucket_stats["平均完课时长"] = bucket_stats["平均完课时长"].round(1) bucket_stats["中位完课时长"] = bucket_stats["中位完课时长"].round(1) bucket_stats = bucket_stats[bucket_stats["用户数"]>0] print(bucket_stats.to_string()) # B. 按完课时长分桶 print("\n ┌─ 按完课时长分桶 ─────────────────────") time_stats = df_cat.groupby("时长桶").agg( 用户数=("用户ID","count"), 退款用户数=("是否退款", lambda x: (x=="是").sum()), 平均课时=("完成课时数","mean"), 平均完课时长=("总完课时长(分钟)","mean"), ).reindex(TIME_BUCKET_ORDER).fillna(0) time_stats["退款率%"] = (time_stats["退款用户数"]/time_stats["用户数"]*100).round(1) time_stats["平均课时"] = time_stats["平均课时"].round(1) time_stats["平均完课时长"] = time_stats["平均完课时长"].round(1) time_stats = time_stats[time_stats["用户数"]>0] print(time_stats.to_string()) # C. 汇总 refund_users = df_cat[df_cat["是否退款"]=="是"] no_refund = df_cat[df_cat["是否退款"]=="否"] print(f"\n ┌─ 汇总 ──────────────────────────────") print(f" 退款用户: {len(refund_users)}, 平均课时: {refund_users['完成课时数'].mean():.1f}, 平均总时长: {refund_users['总完课时长(分钟)'].mean():.1f}min") print(f" 未退款用户: {len(no_refund)}, 平均课时: {no_refund['完成课时数'].mean():.1f}, 平均总时长: {no_refund['总完课时长(分钟)'].mean():.1f}min") print(f" 退费率: {len(refund_users)/len(df_cat)*100:.1f}%") # D. 明细 print(f"\n ┌─ 明细(按时长排序)─────────────────────") for _, r in df_cat.sort_values(["总完课时长(分钟)"]).iterrows(): print(f" UID={r['用户ID']} | {r['完成课时数']}课时 | {r['总完课时长(分钟)']}min | {'退款' if r['是否退款']=='是' else '未退款'} | {r['购买课包'][:35]}") # ── 输出Excel ── output_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "..", "output") os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) output_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "老狼退款_行课分析.xlsx") with pd.ExcelWriter(output_path, engine="openpyxl") as writer: df_out = df.drop(columns=["课时桶","时长桶"], errors="ignore").copy() for col in df_out.columns: if pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(df_out[col]): df_out[col] = df_out[col].dt.tz_localize(None) df_out.to_excel(writer, sheet_name="明细", index=False) for cat_label in ["L1+L2联报→看L1", "仅L2→看L2"]: df_cat = df[df["购买分类"] == cat_label] if len(df_cat) == 0: continue # 按课时桶 bs = df_cat.groupby("课时桶").agg( 用户数=("用户ID","count"), 退款用户数=("是否退款", lambda x: (x=="是").sum()), 平均课时=("完成课时数","mean"), 平均完课时长=("总完课时长(分钟)","mean"), 中位完课时长=("总完课时长(分钟)","median"), ).reindex(BUCKET_ORDER).fillna(0) bs["退款率%"] = (bs["退款用户数"]/bs["用户数"]*100).round(1) bs["平均课时"] = bs["平均课时"].round(1) bs["平均完课时长"] = bs["平均完课时长"].round(1) bs["中位完课时长"] = bs["中位完课时长"].round(1) bs = bs[bs["用户数"]>0] bs.to_excel(writer, sheet_name=f"{cat_label[:20]}_按课时") # 按时长桶 ts = df_cat.groupby("时长桶").agg( 用户数=("用户ID","count"), 退款用户数=("是否退款", lambda x: (x=="是").sum()), 平均课时=("完成课时数","mean"), 平均完课时长=("总完课时长(分钟)","mean"), ).reindex(TIME_BUCKET_ORDER).fillna(0) ts["退款率%"] = (ts["退款用户数"]/ts["用户数"]*100).round(1) ts["平均课时"] = ts["平均课时"].round(1) ts["平均完课时长"] = ts["平均完课时长"].round(1) ts = ts[ts["用户数"]>0] ts.to_excel(writer, sheet_name=f"{cat_label[:20]}_按时长") print(f"\n✅ {output_path}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()