🤖 每日自动备份 - 2026-05-27 08:00:01
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小溪
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"snippet": "# 2026-05-06 工作日志 ## 任务1：学而思/讯飞/希沃/京东方月度渠道订单报表 - [李承龙需求] 创建按月汇总四个渠道订单的 Python 脚本 - 脚本路径：`/root/.openclaw/workspace/scripts/monthly_channel_order_report.py` - **渠道映射：** 仅端内 `key_from='app-active-h5-0-0'`，sale_channel: 21=学而思, 22=讯飞, 26=希沃, 27=京东方 - **输出格式：** 四个渠道各一个 Sheet，每月按天展示（学而思/希沃/京东方只显示有订单日期，讯飞显示全月每天） - **指标差异：** - 学而思/希沃/京东方：订单数、GMV、CPS分成（学而思×0.45，希沃×0.4，京东方×0.3）、订单号（分号拼接） - 讯飞：订单数、GMV、新增注册（download_channel LIKE '%讯飞%'）、CPA分成（新增注册×7）、订单号 - **退费剔除：** NOT EXISTS (bi_refund_order.status=3) AND order_status != 4 - **测试运行：** 2026-04 月份，新增注册 537（讯飞），订单合计 15 单，GMV 14585 元 - **订单号格式问题：** Excel 科学计数法 → 设置单元格为文本格式解决 - **psycopg2 转义：** LIKE 中 `%` 需写成 `%%`（psycopg2 的 `%s` 占位符冲突） ## 任务2：销售线",
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"conceptTags": [
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"学而思/讯飞/希沃/京东方月度渠道订单报表",
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@ -198,6 +200,99 @@
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"工作",
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"日志"
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]
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},
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"memory:memory/2026-05-25.md:1:13": {
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"endLine": 13,
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"source": "memory",
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"snippet": "## 行课记录批量查询 (1676条) [陈逸鸫 请求, 李承龙 确认权限] - 表格: https://makee-interactive.feishu.cn/sheets/RFIJsXT8FhGHhctY4RwczcOfnac (Sheet1, sheet_id=55b0eb) - 查询列: D列(小溪返回行课记录) + E列(更新时间), C列(请求状态→已返回) - 手机号匹配(column J): 961行有用户ID直接查, 715行无ID需手机号匹配, 匹配成功119个, 596个未匹配 - 数据库查询: 1077个去重用户, 1065有课程分配, 1192个角色有行课记录, 201已付费 - 输出格式: `销售:xxx | 用户:xxx | 当前:{level}{type}-{chapter} | 最近行课:date | 学习{X}min | {付费状态}` - 脚本: scripts/batch_course_record_query.py - 待查询行1676条全部处理完成, 写回成功",
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"sheet-id",
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"记录",
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"批量",
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"查询",
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"请求",
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"确认",
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"权限",
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"表格"
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]
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},
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"memory:memory/2026-05-22.md:1:35": {
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"key": "memory:memory/2026-05-22.md:1:35",
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"snippet": "# 2026-05-22 工作日志 ## 口径讨论与确认 ### 用户激活课程口径 [李承龙确认] - 数据源：`bi_vala_seasonal_ticket`（线上 PostgreSQL `vala_bi` 库） - `season_package_level = 'A1'` → L1, `'A2'` → L2 - `status = 1`（激活），`deleted_at IS NULL` - 不对 `ticket_type` 做限制 - 用户存在至少一条满足条件的记录即视为激活对应等级 - 当前数据：仅L1 503人、仅L2 1,439人、L1+L2 1,095人、合计 3,037人 ### 激活课程维度（character × level）[李承龙确认] - 一个角色 + 一个等级 = 一门被激活的课程 - 通过 `character_id`（即 user_id）直接关联学习记录 - 当前数据：L1 1,574门、L2 2,108门、合计 3,682 课程单位 ## 数据分析结果 ### 激活用户近14天完课分析（2026-05-09~2026-05-22） - 按用户：43.0% 无完课（仅L1 34.3%、仅L2 61.3%、L1+L2 23.9%） - L1+L2用户中82.5%只学了L1、13.5%两个都学、3.9%只学L2 ### 激活课程近14天完课分析 - 按课程：51.1% 无完课（L1 29.9%、L2 66.8%） - 20.9%从未有过完课记录 - 无完课课程最后停在U00~U02：L1 65.0%、L2 53.3% ### 最后完课",
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"conceptTags": [
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"bi-vala-seasonal-ticket",
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"vala-bi",
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"season-package-level",
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"deleted-at",
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"ticket-type",
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"character-id",
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"user-id",
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"43.0"
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"snippet": "- **L2 U0**: chapter_id IN (55,56,57,58,59) - **剔除后结果（截至5/10）:** - 仅L1: 付费192/有消132/无消60(31%)/人均2.53/有消人均3.67 - 仅L2: 付费1370/有消461/无消909(66%)/人均1.18/有消人均3.49 - L1+L2: 付费1207/有消660/无消547(45%)/人均2.37/有消人均4.34 - **4张独立图表已生成至 output/** ## 李承龙 - 课消口径调整：L1/L2按付费群重新分类 - **[李承龙确认]** L1付费用户 = 仅L1 + L1+L2，L2付费用户 = 仅L2 + L1+L2（L1+L2用户在两张图中均有计入） - **重新生成 Excel v3** (`output/course_consumption_by_level_v3.xlsx`)：4个Sheet（概览/每周明细/L1图表/L2图表） - **重新生成 4张独立PNG图表** (`output/L1_all_users_stack.png`, `L1_all_avg_trend.png`, `L2_all_users_stack.png`, `L2_all_avg_trend.png`) - **最终数据（截至最后一周，剔除U0序章）:** - L1付费群: 1,399人 | 有消738 | 无消661(43%) | 人均1.97 | 有消人均3.73 - L2付费群: 2,577人 | 有消1,126 | 无消1,451(56%) | 人均1",
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"conceptTags": [
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"chapter-id",
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"截至5/10",
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"付费192/有消132/无消60",
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"人均2.53/有消人均3.67",
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"付费1370/有消461/无消909",
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"人均1.18/有消人均3.49",
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"付费1207/有消660/无消547",
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"人均2.37/有消人均4.34"
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378
memory/2026-05-26-1404.md
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378
memory/2026-05-26-1404.md
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@ -0,0 +1,378 @@
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# Session: 2026-05-26 14:04:36 GMT+8
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- **Session Key**: agent:main:feishu:direct:ou_7ef247331804edf255f53e3be15963f4
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- **Session ID**: 651bff58-76de-4d2f-8a84-889293a1a80d
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- **Source**: feishu
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## Conversation Summary
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user: 在最近14天里面，没有完课行为的付费用户，占总付费用户的比例有多少？其中LV1的有多少，LV2的有多少？
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assistant: Now let me write the analysis script. First, let me verify the environment:
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assistant: 数据出来了，以下是结果：
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---
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## 📊 最近14天（5/9 ~ 5/22）无完课行为付费用户分析
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| 指标 | 数值 |
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|------|------|
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| **付费用户总数** | **4,375** 人 |
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| 14天内有完课行为 | 1,850 人（42.3%） |
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| **14天内无完课行为** | **2,525 人（57.7%）** |
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### 按课程等级拆分（无完课行为用户）
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| 分类 | 总付费用户 | 无完课人数 | 无完课占比 |
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|------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
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| **仅L1** | 250 | **94** | 37.6% |
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| **仅L2** | 2,094 | **1,487** | 71.0% |
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| **L1+L2** | 2,024 | **937** | 46.3% |
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| 其他 | 7 | 7 | 100.0% |
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### 交叉汇总视角
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| 分类 | 总付费用户 | 无完课人数 | 无完课占比 |
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|------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
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| 含L1（仅L1+L1+L2） | 2,274 | 1,031 | 45.3% |
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| 含L2（仅L2+L1+L2） | 4,118 | 2,424 | 58.9% |
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---
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**简要解读：**
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- 近14天内有 **57.7%** 的付费用户完全没有完课行为
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- 仅L2用户的无完课比例最高，达 **71.0%**（2,094人中1,487人无完课）
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- 仅L1用户相对更活跃，无完课比例仅 37.6%
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- L1+L2用户处于中间水平，无完课比例 46.3%
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按你问的"LV1""LV2"口径——如果指**仅买过L1**和**仅买过L2**的用户，14天内无完课的分别是 **94人** 和 **1,487人**。L1+L2双购用户中无完课的有937人。
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user: 对于最近14天无完课行为的2615人来说，他们最后一次完课记录都分布在LV1和LV2的哪个Unit？
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assistant: 数据出来了，结果如下：
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---
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## 📊 无完课付费用户最后一次完课 Unit 分布
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### 仅L1 用户（94人，其中79人有完课记录）
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| Unit | 人数 |
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|------|------|
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| **U00** | **38** |
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| U01 | 14 |
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| U02 | 13 |
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| U03 | 9 |
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| U04~U08 | 14 |
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| 无任何完课 | 10 |
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### 仅L2 用户（1,487人，其中1,114人有完课记录）
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| Unit | 人数 |
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|------|------|
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| **U00** | **635** |
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| U01 | 218 |
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| U02 | 116 |
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| U03 | 64 |
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| U04 | 54 |
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| U05~U29 | 77 |
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| 无任何完课 | 271 |
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### L1+L2 用户（937人，其中681人有完课记录）
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| Unit | 人数 |
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|------|------|
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| **U00** | **578** |
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| U01 | 146 |
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| U02 | 60 |
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| U03 | 24 |
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| U04~U15 | 38 |
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| 无任何完课 | 114 |
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---
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## 📋 要点汇总
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| 分类 | 总人数 | 有完课记录 | 完全无完课 | 最后完课 Top1 |
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|------|--------|-----------|-----------|--------------|
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| 仅L1 | 94 | 79 | 10 | **U00 (48.1%)** |
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| 仅L2 | 1,487 | 1,114 | 271 | **U00 (57.0%)** |
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| L1+L2 | 937 | 681 | 114 | **U00 (84.9%)** |
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---
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**整体结论：** 无论 L1 还是 L2，无完课用户的最后一次完课记录**高度集中在 U00**（入门单元），说明大部分用户在完成体验内容后就停止了。进入 U01 之后人数断崖式下降，L2 更为明显——仅L2用户中 U00→U01 流失了约 2/3。
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user: 在表格最右帮我加一个占比
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assistant: 好的，补充占比列：
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---
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## 📊 无完课付费用户最后一次完课 Unit 分布
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### 仅L1 用户（94人，其中79人有完课记录，占比基数为79）
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| Unit | 人数 | 占比 |
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|------|------|------|
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| **U00** | **38** | **48.1%** |
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| U01 | 14 | 17.7% |
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| U02 | 13 | 16.5% |
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| U03 | 9 | 11.4% |
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| U04 | 4 | 5.1% |
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| U05 | 4 | 5.1% |
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| U06 | 3 | 3.8% |
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| U07 | 2 | 2.5% |
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| U08 | 1 | 1.3% |
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| 无任何完课 | 10 | — |
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### 仅L2 用户（1,487人，其中1,114人有完课记录，占比基数为1,114）
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| Unit | 人数 | 占比 |
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|------|------|------|
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| **U00** | **635** | **57.0%** |
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| U01 | 218 | 19.6% |
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| U02 | 116 | 10.4% |
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| U03 | 64 | 5.7% |
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| U04 | 54 | 4.8% |
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| U05 | 29 | 2.6% |
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| U06 | 23 | 2.1% |
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| U07 | 23 | 2.1% |
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| U08 | 11 | 1.0% |
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| U09~U29 | 51 | 4.6% |
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| 无任何完课 | 271 | — |
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### L1+L2 用户（937人，其中681人有完课记录，占比基数为681）
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| Unit | 人数 | 占比 |
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|------|------|------|
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| **U00** | **578** | **84.9%** |
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| U01 | 146 | 21.4% |
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| U02 | 60 | 8.8% |
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| U03 | 24 | 3.5% |
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| U04 | 11 | 1.6% |
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| U05~U15 | 27 | 4.0% |
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| 无任何完课 | 114 | — |
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---
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> 占比 = 该 Unit 人数 ÷ 有完课记录人数（不含"无任何完课"用户）
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user: 我想区分不同keyfrom的订单用户，在完课行为的差异
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assistant: 数据出来了，结果如下：
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---
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## 📊 各渠道付费用户近14天完课行为差异
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### 渠道总览
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| 渠道 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
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|------|--------|--------|-----------|
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| **销售渠道** | 182 | 31 | **17.0%** 🟢 |
|
||||
| **端内** | 313 | 147 | **47.0%** 🟡 |
|
||||
| **其他端外** | 133 | 73 | **54.9%** 🟡 |
|
||||
| **达人直播** | 3,538 | 2,108 | **59.6%** 🟠 |
|
||||
| **小红书店铺** | 91 | 57 | **62.6%** 🟠 |
|
||||
| **万物** | 178 | 129 | **72.5%** 🔴 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 渠道 × 等级交叉
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 等级 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
|
||||
|------|------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
| 端内 | 仅L1 | 95 | 31 | 32.6% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 200 | 114 | 57.0% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
|
||||
| 销售渠道 | 仅L1 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 74 | 16 | 21.6% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 59 | 7 | 11.9% |
|
||||
| 达人直播 | 仅L1 | 80 | 48 | 60.0% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 1,552 | 1,160 | 74.7% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 1,906 | 900 | 47.2% |
|
||||
| 小红书店铺 | 仅L2 | 75 | 54 | 72.0% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
|
||||
| 万物 | 仅L2 | 144 | 110 | 76.4% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 25 | 17 | 68.0% |
|
||||
|
||||
### 端内子渠道细分（sale_channel）
|
||||
|
||||
| 子渠道 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
|
||||
|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
| 苹果 | 91 | 43 | 47.3% |
|
||||
| 华为 | 59 | 29 | 49.2% |
|
||||
| 学而思 | 40 | 23 | 57.5% |
|
||||
| 讯飞 | 27 | 14 | 51.9% |
|
||||
| 小米 | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
|
||||
| 应用宝 | 13 | 10 | 76.9% |
|
||||
| 京东方 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
|
||||
| OPPO | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
|
||||
| 希沃 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
|
||||
| 荣耀 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**几个关键发现：**
|
||||
|
||||
1. **销售渠道（sales-adp）用户最活跃**，仅 17.0% 无完课，且 L1/L2/L1+L2 三类都很健康，说明销售跟进对促活效果明显
|
||||
2. **万物和达人直播无完课占比最高**（72.5%/59.6%），这两个渠道占付费用户的绝大多数，是整体无完课率高的主要来源
|
||||
3. **L1+L2 用户普遍更活跃**——在各渠道中 L1+L2 的无完课占比都显著低于仅L2 用户
|
||||
4. 端内子渠道中，应用宝（76.9%）、京东方（71.4%）、希沃（100%）无完课占比偏高，但样本量较小
|
||||
user: 剔除掉退费数据，只保留未退款的订单
|
||||
assistant: 剔除退费后结果如下：
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 📊 各渠道付费用户近14天完课行为差异（剔除退费）
|
||||
|
||||
### 渠道总览
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 | vs 剔除前 |
|
||||
|------|--------|--------|-----------|----------|
|
||||
| **销售渠道** | 172 | 23 | **13.4%** 🟢 | 17.0%→13.4% |
|
||||
| **达人直播** | 2,310 | 939 | **40.6%** 🟡 | 59.6%→40.6% |
|
||||
| **其他端外** | 96 | 41 | **42.7%** 🟡 | 54.9%→42.7% |
|
||||
| **端内** | 302 | 138 | **45.7%** 🟡 | 47.0%→45.7% |
|
||||
| **小红书店铺** | 68 | 37 | **54.4%** 🟠 | 62.6%→54.4% |
|
||||
| **万物** | 146 | 97 | **66.4%** 🔴 | 72.5%→66.4% |
|
||||
|
||||
### 渠道 × 等级交叉
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 等级 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
|
||||
|------|------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
| 端内 | 仅L1 | 96 | 31 | 32.3% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 192 | 106 | 55.2% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
|
||||
| 销售渠道 | 仅L1 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 72 | 13 | 18.1% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 54 | 4 | 7.4% |
|
||||
| 达人直播 | 仅L1 | 54 | 16 | 29.6% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 952 | 565 | 59.3% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 1,304 | 358 | 27.5% |
|
||||
| 小红书店铺 | 仅L2 | 57 | 37 | 64.9% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
|
||||
| 万物 | 仅L2 | 118 | 84 | 71.2% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 20 | 12 | 60.0% |
|
||||
|
||||
### 端内子渠道细分
|
||||
|
||||
| 子渠道 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
|
||||
|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
| 苹果 | 89 | 41 | 46.1% |
|
||||
| 华为 | 58 | 28 | 48.3% |
|
||||
| 学而思 | 38 | 22 | 57.9% |
|
||||
| 讯飞 | 27 | 14 | 51.9% |
|
||||
| 小米 | 14 | 8 | 57.1% |
|
||||
| 应用宝 | 12 | 9 | 75.0% |
|
||||
| 京东方 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**剔除退费后的变化：**
|
||||
|
||||
- **达人直播变化最大**：无完课占比从 59.6% 降到 40.6%，降了近 19 个百分点，说明该渠道有大量退费用户拉高了原始的无完课率
|
||||
- **销售渠道依然最健康**：仅 13.4% 无完课，L1+L2 用户仅 7.4% 无完课
|
||||
- **万物仍是最差**：66.4% 无完课，与剔除前变化不大，说明不是退费问题，而是用户本身活跃度低
|
||||
- 整体来看剔除退费后各渠道无完课占比都有下降，但**万物的 66.4% 和仅L2 用户的持续高无完课率**仍是最突出的问题
|
||||
user: 剔除掉26年3月前的订单，只比较3月后销售的订单情况
|
||||
assistant: 结果如下——只看2026年3月后的订单，画面完全不一样了：
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 📊 各渠道付费用户近14天完课行为差异（3月后订单 + 剔除退费）
|
||||
|
||||
### 渠道总览
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 | 变化趋势 |
|
||||
|------|--------|--------|-----------|----------|
|
||||
| **小红书店铺** | 13 | 1 | **7.7%** 🟢 | 54.4%→7.7% |
|
||||
| **销售渠道** | 172 | 23 | **13.4%** 🟢 | 稳定最优 |
|
||||
| **达人直播** | 1,643 | 475 | **28.9%** 🟢 | 40.6%→28.9% |
|
||||
| **端内** | 182 | 54 | **29.7%** 🟢 | 45.7%→29.7% |
|
||||
| **其他端外** | 71 | 22 | **31.0%** 🟡 | 42.7%→31.0% |
|
||||
| **万物** | 38 | 16 | **42.1%** 🟠 | 66.4%→42.1% |
|
||||
|
||||
### 渠道 × 等级交叉
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 等级 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
|
||||
|------|------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
| 端内 | 仅L1 | 96 | 31 | 32.3% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 73 | 22 | 30.1% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
|
||||
| 销售渠道 | 仅L1 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 72 | 13 | 18.1% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 54 | 4 | 7.4% |
|
||||
| 达人直播 | 仅L1 | 59 | 20 | 33.9% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 295 | 105 | 35.6% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 1,289 | 350 | 27.2% |
|
||||
| 万物 | 仅L1 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
|
||||
| | L1+L2 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% |
|
||||
|
||||
### 端内子渠道
|
||||
|
||||
| 子渠道 | 总付费 | 无完课 | 无完课占比 |
|
||||
|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
|
||||
| 苹果 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% |
|
||||
| 华为 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% |
|
||||
| 学而思 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
|
||||
| 讯飞 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
|
||||
| 小米 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**对比三版数据的变化：**
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 全量+含退费 | 全量-退费 | 3月后-退费 |
|
||||
|------|------------|----------|-----------|
|
||||
| 销售渠道 | 17.0% | 13.4% | **13.4%** |
|
||||
| 达人直播 | 59.6% | 40.6% | **28.9%** |
|
||||
| 端内 | 47.0% | 45.7% | **29.7%** |
|
||||
| 小红书 | 62.6% | 54.4% | **7.7%** |
|
||||
| 万物 | 72.5% | 66.4% | **42.1%** |
|
||||
|
||||
**核心发现：** 限定3月后购买 + 剔除退费后，所有渠道的无完课占比全面大幅下降。达人直播从最早的 59.6% 降到 28.9%，端内从 47.0% 降到 29.7%。说明早期数据中掺入了大量已流失/已退费的老用户，**近3个月的新付费用户活跃度明显更健康**。
|
||||
user: 不同渠道的付费用户的使用频次有什么差异？
|
||||
assistant: 结果如下：
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 📊 各渠道付费用户近14天完课频次差异（3月后+剔除退费）
|
||||
|
||||
### 核心指标总览
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 总付费 | 活跃率 | 人均完课(全) | 人均完课(活跃) | 中位数 | P75 | P90 |
|
||||
|------|--------|--------|-------------|---------------|--------|-----|-----|
|
||||
| **销售渠道** | 172 | **86.6%** | 6.3 | 7.3 | 6 | 9 | 14 |
|
||||
| **小红书店铺** | 13 | **92.3%** | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
|
||||
| **端内** | 182 | 70.3% | 5.2 | 7.4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
|
||||
| **达人直播** | 1,643 | 71.1% | 4.8 | 6.7 | 6 | 9 | 13 |
|
||||
| **其他端外** | 71 | 69.0% | 4.8 | 7.0 | 6 | 9 | 13 |
|
||||
| **万物** | 38 | **57.9%** | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 等级 × 渠道交叉
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 等级 | 活跃率 | 人均(活跃) | 中位数 |
|
||||
|------|------|--------|-----------|--------|
|
||||
| 端内 | L1+L2 | 92.3% | 7.6 | 8 |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 69.9% | 8.2 | 4 |
|
||||
| | 仅L1 | 67.7% | 6.8 | 8 |
|
||||
| 销售渠道 | L1+L2 | 92.6% | 8.2 | 7 |
|
||||
| | 仅L1 | 87.0% | 6.3 | 5 |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 81.9% | 7.1 | 5 |
|
||||
| 达人直播 | L1+L2 | 72.8% | 6.8 | 6 |
|
||||
| | 仅L1 | 66.1% | 5.9 | 6 |
|
||||
| | 仅L2 | 64.4% | 6.3 | 5 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 频次分布（活跃用户中，14天完课次数）
|
||||
|
||||
| 渠道 | 1-2次 | 3-4次 | 5-7次 | 8-14次 | 15次+ |
|
||||
|------|-------|-------|-------|--------|-------|
|
||||
| 销售渠道 | 20.1% | 16.1% | 26.2% | 28.2% | 9.4% |
|
||||
| 端内 | 21.9% | 17.2% | 18.0% | **36.7%** | 6.2% |
|
||||
| 达人直播 | 25.6% | 15.9% | 21.1% | 29.3% | 8.0% |
|
||||
| 万物 | 31.8% | 13.6% | 27.3% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
|
||||
| 小红书 | 8.3% | 41.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 8.3% |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**几个关键发现：**
|
||||
|
||||
1. **活跃率**是最大的差异点——销售渠道 86.6% vs 万物 57.9%，差了近 30 个百分点。说明渠道本身对「是否使用」影响远大于「用多少次」
|
||||
2. **一旦开始用，频次差异不大**——活跃用户的人均完课数各渠道都在 6.3~8.0 之间，中位数集中在 5~6 次，渠道间差距仅 1~2 次
|
||||
3. **L1+L2 用户无论在哪个渠道都是最活跃的**——活跃率普遍 90%+，人均完课也最高
|
||||
4. 端内用户出现两极分化：活跃用户中 **8-14 次高频用户占比最高（36.7%）**，但整体活跃率只有 70.3%，说明端内有一批铁杆用户和一批沉默用户并存
|
||||
133
memory/2026-05-26-1415.md
Normal file
133
memory/2026-05-26-1415.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
|
||||
# Session: 2026-05-26 14:15:54 GMT+8
|
||||
|
||||
- **Session Key**: agent:main:feishu:direct:ou_7ef247331804edf255f53e3be15963f4
|
||||
- **Session ID**: ede92de7-1309-4d89-8e46-c2644a967294
|
||||
- **Source**: feishu
|
||||
|
||||
## Conversation Summary
|
||||
|
||||
user: [media attached: /root/.openclaw/media/inbound/è¾¾æ_å_å_²ç_æ_äº_å_º---3403f15a-8af6-4bf9-b548-ece0776bf5a3.xlsx (application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet) | /root/.openclaw/media/inbound/è¾¾æ_å_å_²ç_æ_äº_å_º---3403f15a-8af6-4bf9-b548-ece0776bf5a3.xlsx]
|
||||
[File: /root/.openclaw/media/inbound/è¾¾æ_å_å_²ç_æ_äº_å_º---3403f15a-8af6-4bf9-b548-ece0776bf5a3.xlsx]
|
||||
assistant: 王虹茗你好，我收到了你发的「达人历史成交」表格，数据覆盖 2025年9月 ~ 2026年5月的达人销售明细，包含各达人的支付单数、GMV、退款、GSV 等指标。
|
||||
|
||||
请问你需要我帮你做什么呢？比如：
|
||||
|
||||
- 对这份数据进行汇总分析、生成报表？
|
||||
- 和数据库中的实际订单数据进行对比校验？
|
||||
- 按达人/月度/平台维度做进一步的统计和可视化？
|
||||
- 其他处理？
|
||||
|
||||
请告诉我具体需求，我来处理。
|
||||
user: 读取这个表里sheet，分析业务情况
|
||||
assistant: 王虹茗，以下是基于你发的达人历史成交表的完整业务分析：
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 📊 瓦拉英语达人销售业务分析（2025.9 - 2026.5）
|
||||
|
||||
### 一、核心指标
|
||||
|
||||
| 指标 | 数值 |
|
||||
|------|------|
|
||||
| 达人直播场次 | **81 场** |
|
||||
| 合作达人 | **30 人** |
|
||||
| 累计订单 | **3,203 单** |
|
||||
| 累计 GMV | **¥974.8 万** |
|
||||
| 累计 GSV（实收） | **¥570.3 万** |
|
||||
| 净收入率 | **58.5%** |
|
||||
| 整体退款率 | **40.0%** |
|
||||
| 单均 GMV | **¥3,043** |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
### 二、月度趋势 — 三阶段明显
|
||||
|
||||
| 阶段 | 月份 | 月均 GMV | 特征 |
|
||||
|------|------|----------|------|
|
||||
| 🧪 探索期 | 9-12月 | ¥57.9万 | 场次少（2-6场/月），模式验证中 |
|
||||
| 🚀 爆发期 | 3-4月 | ¥367.4万 | 场次暴增，3月环比 +466%，4月 GMV 达 ¥464.5万 |
|
||||
| ⚖️ 稳定期 | 1-2月、5月 | ¥46.6万(均值) | 1-2月淡季，5月回落至 ¥161.6万 |
|
||||
|
||||
关键转折：3月引入学霸系（学霸老王+学霸三人行）三开模式后 GMV 飙升。
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
### 三、达人贡献 TOP5
|
||||
|
||||
| 达人 | 场次 | GMV | 退款率 | GMV占比 |
|
||||
|------|------|------|------|------|
|
||||
| **晚柠** | 15 | ¥276.4万 | 24.9% | 28.4% |
|
||||
| **念妈** | 11 | ¥209.2万 | 50.2% | 21.5% |
|
||||
| **学霸老王** | 5 | ¥193.6万 | 47.1% | 19.9% |
|
||||
| **学霸三人行** | 7 | ¥155.0万 | 51.6% | 15.9% |
|
||||
| 神奇瓜妈 | 2 | ¥52.5万 | 24.8% | 5.4% |
|
||||
|
||||
> ⚠️ 晚柠 + 念妈 + 学霸系 四人贡献 **85.7%** 的 GMV，集中度极高。
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
### 四、核心洞察
|
||||
|
||||
**🔴 退款率是最大痛点**
|
||||
|
||||
- 整体退款率 40%，意味着每卖出 ¥100，最终只收回 ¥58.5
|
||||
- **小小鹰萱妈** 67.4%、**学霸三人行** 51.6%、**念妈** 50.2% 退款率最高
|
||||
- 抖音/视频号渠道退款率普遍 >50%，可能与冲动消费有关
|
||||
- **晚柠**（24.9%）和**神奇瓜妈**（24.8%）退款率显著低于均值，是优质达人
|
||||
|
||||
**🟢 小红书是最优质渠道**
|
||||
|
||||
- GMV ¥309.2万，退款率仅 27.3%，远低于三开的 49.2%
|
||||
- 晚柠在小红书的转化效率最高
|
||||
|
||||
**🟡 结构性问题**
|
||||
|
||||
- 2月仅1位达人开播，供应端不稳定
|
||||
- 3-4月靠学霸系冲量，GSV 质量存疑
|
||||
- 分销/万物渠道退款率最低（15-21%），但体量小，值得放大
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
需要我进一步做某个维度的深入分析，或者把这份报告导出成文件吗？
|
||||
user: 生成一份达播业务的可视化图表
|
||||
assistant: 图表已生成，共 3 张：
|
||||
|
||||
**📊 图1：业务全景仪表盘**
|
||||
- 月度 GMV & GSV 趋势对比
|
||||
- 月度退款率 & 直播场次
|
||||
- GMV 构成（实收 vs 退款）
|
||||
- 达人 GMV 排行 TOP10
|
||||
- 达人退款率对比
|
||||
- 平台/渠道 GMV 对比
|
||||
|
||||
**📊 图2：达人结构分析**
|
||||
- 月度 GMV 达人贡献拆解（堆叠图）
|
||||
- 达人效率矩阵（气泡图：GMV × 退款率 × 订单量）
|
||||
|
||||
**📊 图3：退款分布 & 运营效率**
|
||||
- 退款率月度热力图（达人×月份）
|
||||
- 月度运营效率：场次 & 单均GMV & 净收入率
|
||||
|
||||
MEDIA:/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_biz_charts.png
|
||||
MEDIA:/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_biz_charts2.png
|
||||
MEDIA:/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_biz_charts3.png
|
||||
user: 生成一份达播业务的可视化图表
|
||||
assistant: 三张可视化图表已全部发送，涵盖：
|
||||
|
||||
1. **业务全景** — 月度趋势、达人排行、平台对比
|
||||
2. **结构分析** — 达人贡献拆解、效率矩阵
|
||||
3. **退款分布** — 热力图、运营效率趋势
|
||||
|
||||
如需导出高清 PDF 版本或调整图表中的具体数据口径，随时告诉我。
|
||||
user: 按达人/月度/平台维度做进一步的统计和可视化
|
||||
assistant: 三维度深度分析图表已全部发送：
|
||||
|
||||
| 维度 | 图表数 | 核心内容 |
|
||||
|------|--------|----------|
|
||||
| **达人** | 6图 | 热力图、效率矩阵、雷达图、活跃度、GSV贡献、退款走势 |
|
||||
| **月度** | 6图 | GMV构成、退款率趋势、场次效率、平台分布、新老达人、环比增长 |
|
||||
| **平台** | 6图 | 占比饼图、退款对比、达人多样性、趋势走势、热力图、场均稳定性 |
|
||||
|
||||
共 18 张图表，覆盖达人×月度×平台三个维度的交叉分析。需要导出 PDF 或调整某个维度的口径，随时告诉我。
|
||||
user: 你在吗
|
||||
assistant: 在的，有什么需要？
|
||||
BIN
output/daren_biz_charts.png
Normal file
BIN
output/daren_biz_charts.png
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|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 483 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_biz_charts2.png
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BIN
output/daren_biz_charts2.png
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|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 222 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_biz_charts3.png
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BIN
output/daren_biz_charts3.png
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|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 303 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_deep_analysis.png
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BIN
output/daren_deep_analysis.png
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Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 690 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_deep_analysis_v2.png
Normal file
BIN
output/daren_deep_analysis_v2.png
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Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 680 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_dim_month.png
Normal file
BIN
output/daren_dim_month.png
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Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 479 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_dim_people.png
Normal file
BIN
output/daren_dim_people.png
Normal file
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 716 KiB |
BIN
output/daren_dim_platform.png
Normal file
BIN
output/daren_dim_platform.png
Normal file
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 590 KiB |
BIN
output/revenue_forecast_2026.png
Normal file
BIN
output/revenue_forecast_2026.png
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Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 416 KiB |
444
scripts/daren_deep_analysis.py
Normal file
444
scripts/daren_deep_analysis.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,444 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""
|
||||
瓦拉英语 达播渠道深度分析
|
||||
- 达人拓展状况（新达人 vs 复发达人）
|
||||
- 合作产出（GMV趋势、平台分布、退款率）
|
||||
- 已剔除测试订单
|
||||
"""
|
||||
import matplotlib
|
||||
matplotlib.use('Agg')
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import warnings
|
||||
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.rcParams['font.family'] = ['DejaVu Sans']
|
||||
plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# DATA (cleaned, test orders excluded)
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
months_label = ['9月', '10月', '11月', '12月', '1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月']
|
||||
|
||||
# Monthly summary
|
||||
gmv = [597701, 765617, 451774, 177911, 217891, 353823, 2521415, 4497095, 1604719]
|
||||
gsv = [359820, 467766, 253873, 131934, 153923, 155922, 1829794, 2509428, 1122583]
|
||||
orders = [299, 383, 226, 89, 109, 177, 767, 1429, 490]
|
||||
pay_users = [296, 376, 224, 86, 105, 177, 729, 1334, 463]
|
||||
|
||||
# Daren count
|
||||
total_darens = [5, 10, 14, 4, 6, 3, 10, 25, 17]
|
||||
new_darens = [5, 7, 7, 0, 2, 2, 2, 20, 7]
|
||||
repeat_darens= [0, 3, 7, 4, 4, 1, 8, 5, 10]
|
||||
|
||||
# Refund rate
|
||||
refund_rate = [39.8, 38.9, 43.8, 25.8, 29.4, 55.9, 27.4, 44.2, 30.0]
|
||||
|
||||
# Platform monthly GMV
|
||||
platform_data = {
|
||||
'抖音': [185907, 37981, 123938, 0, 25987, 347826, 327023, 2362662, 524514],
|
||||
'小红书': [259870, 277861, 45977, 173913, 103948, 1999, 1542345, 832746, 682022],
|
||||
'视频号': [149925, 449775, 279860, 3998, 87956, 3998, 652047, 1301687, 398183],
|
||||
'有赞': [1999, 0, 1999, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
|
||||
}
|
||||
platform_totals = {'抖音': 3935838, '小红书': 3920681, '视频号': 3327429, '有赞': 3998}
|
||||
platform_refund = {'抖音': 48.5, '小红书': 29.3, '视频号': 34.4, '有赞': 0.0}
|
||||
platform_gsv = {'抖音': 2027713, '小红书': 2770499, '视频号': 2182833, '有赞': 3998}
|
||||
|
||||
# Top darens cumulative
|
||||
darens_cum = [
|
||||
('晚柠', 914, 2788085, 9, '小红书'),
|
||||
('念妈', 880, 2339557, 7, '多平台'),
|
||||
('学霸老王', 611, 1868984, 2, '多平台'),
|
||||
('学霸三人行', 477, 1497183, 2, '多平台'),
|
||||
('神奇瓜妈', 156, 521313, 2, '视频号'),
|
||||
('小花生', 146, 365408, 4, '视频号'),
|
||||
('老狼聊育儿', 110, 352607, 2, '视频号'),
|
||||
('小小鹰萱妈', 174, 347826, 1, '抖音'),
|
||||
('百克力', 151, 301849, 4, '多平台'),
|
||||
('开心妈妈', 62, 123938, 2, '小红书'),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
# New daren first-month GMV
|
||||
new_daren_first_gmv = {
|
||||
'9月': [259870, 183908, 149925, 1999, 1999],
|
||||
'10月': [157921, 137931, 131934, 121939, 81959, 3998, 1999],
|
||||
'11月': [95952, 57971, 19990, 17991, 15992, 15992, 1999],
|
||||
'12月': [],
|
||||
'1月': [71964, 1999],
|
||||
'2月': [347826, 3998],
|
||||
'3月': [1525954, 23587],
|
||||
'4月': [941088, 759185, 513717, 132727, 69162, 55170, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3198, 1999, 1999, 1999, 1999, 1949],
|
||||
'5月': [219880, 52371, 26386, 3998, 3598, 3598, 1999],
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# Daren lifecycle - monthly GMV for key darens
|
||||
daren_monthly = {
|
||||
'晚柠': [259870, 23988, 5997, 171914, 101949, 1999, 1525954, 95947, 600467],
|
||||
'念妈': [333833, 103948, 207896, 0, 39980, 0, 714813, 454952, 484135],
|
||||
'学霸老王': [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1651102, 217882],
|
||||
'学霸三人行': [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1489187, 7996],
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# CHARTS
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(22, 28))
|
||||
fig.suptitle('瓦拉英语 达播渠道深度分析（已剔除测试订单）', fontsize=22, fontweight='bold', y=0.985)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 1: 月度核心指标 ----
|
||||
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 1)
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(months_label))
|
||||
bars = ax1.bar(x, [g/10000 for g in gmv], color='#4472C4', alpha=0.85, label='GMV')
|
||||
ax1.plot(x, [g/10000 for g in gsv], 'D-', color='#70AD47', linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, label='GSV')
|
||||
|
||||
# Add refund rate as text
|
||||
for i, (r, o) in enumerate(zip(refund_rate, orders)):
|
||||
ax1.text(i, gmv[i]/10000 + 2, f'{r:.0f}%', ha='center', fontsize=7, color='#D64545', fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax1.text(i, gmv[i]/10000 + 7, f'{o}单', ha='center', fontsize=6, color='#888888')
|
||||
|
||||
ax1.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax1.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax1.set_title('月度 GMV/GSV & 退款率', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax1.legend(fontsize=8, loc='upper left')
|
||||
ax1.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'¥{v:.0f}万'))
|
||||
ax1.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 2: 达人拓展状况 ----
|
||||
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 2)
|
||||
ax2.bar(x - 0.15, new_darens, 0.3, color='#70AD47', alpha=0.85, label='新达人')
|
||||
ax2.bar(x + 0.15, repeat_darens, 0.3, color='#4472C4', alpha=0.85, label='复发达人')
|
||||
ax2.plot(x, total_darens, 'D-', color='#ED7D31', linewidth=2, markersize=8, label='达人总数')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (t, n, r) in enumerate(zip(total_darens, new_darens, repeat_darens)):
|
||||
ax2.text(i, t + 0.3, str(t), ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax2.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax2.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax2.set_title('达人拓展：新达人 vs 复发达人', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax2.legend(fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax2.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 3: 平台GMV堆叠 ----
|
||||
ax3 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 3)
|
||||
platform_colors = {'抖音': '#EE3F4D', '小红书': '#FF6B81', '视频号': '#FFC000', '有赞': '#A5A5A5'}
|
||||
bottom = np.zeros(9)
|
||||
for plat, color in [('抖音', '#EE3F4D'), ('小红书', '#FF6B81'), ('视频号', '#FFC000'), ('有赞', '#A5A5A5')]:
|
||||
vals = [v/10000 for v in platform_data[plat]]
|
||||
ax3.bar(x, vals, 0.6, bottom=bottom, color=color, alpha=0.85, label=plat)
|
||||
bottom += np.array(vals)
|
||||
|
||||
# Platform refund rate
|
||||
for i, m in enumerate(months_label):
|
||||
if gmv[i] > 0:
|
||||
ax3.text(i, gmv[i]/10000 + 5, f'退{refund_rate[i]:.0f}%', ha='center', fontsize=7, color='#D64545')
|
||||
|
||||
ax3.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax3.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax3.set_title('分平台 GMV 构成', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax3.legend(fontsize=8, loc='upper left')
|
||||
ax3.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'¥{v:.0f}万'))
|
||||
ax3.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 4: 平台效能对比（气泡图） ----
|
||||
ax4 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 4)
|
||||
for plat in ['抖音', '小红书', '视频号']:
|
||||
gmv_val = platform_totals[plat] / 10000
|
||||
refund_val = platform_refund[plat]
|
||||
gsv_val = platform_gsv[plat] / 10000
|
||||
# Bubble size = GSV
|
||||
size = gsv_val * 30
|
||||
ax4.scatter(refund_val, gmv_val, s=size, alpha=0.7,
|
||||
color={'抖音': '#EE3F4D', '小红书': '#FF6B81', '视频号': '#FFC000'}[plat],
|
||||
edgecolors='black', linewidth=1.5)
|
||||
ax4.annotate(f'{plat}\nGMV¥{gmv_val:.0f}万\n退款率{refund_val:.1f}%\nGSV¥{gsv_val:.0f}万',
|
||||
(refund_val, gmv_val), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(15, -10),
|
||||
fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color='#333333')
|
||||
|
||||
ax4.set_xlabel('退款率 %', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax4.set_ylabel('累计 GMV (万元)', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax4.set_title('平台效能矩阵（气泡=GSV）', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax4.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax4.set_xlim(25, 55)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 5: 达人贡献帕累托 ----
|
||||
ax5 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 5)
|
||||
daren_names = [d[0] for d in darens_cum]
|
||||
daren_gmv = [d[2]/10000 for d in darens_cum]
|
||||
daren_orders = [d[1] for d in darens_cum]
|
||||
daren_months = [d[3] for d in darens_cum]
|
||||
|
||||
colors_bar = ['#1F4E79' if m >= 4 else '#4472C4' if m >= 2 else '#9DC3E6' for m in daren_months]
|
||||
bars = ax5.barh(range(len(daren_names)), daren_gmv, color=colors_bar, alpha=0.85, height=0.7)
|
||||
|
||||
# Add cumulative % line
|
||||
cum_pct = np.cumsum(daren_gmv) / sum(daren_gmv) * 100
|
||||
ax5_2 = ax5.twiny()
|
||||
ax5_2.plot(cum_pct, range(len(daren_names)), 'D-', color='#D64545', linewidth=2, markersize=6)
|
||||
ax5_2.set_xlabel('累计占比 %', fontsize=10, color='#D64545')
|
||||
ax5_2.tick_params(axis='x', labelcolor='#D64545')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (name, gmv_val, orders_val, months_val) in enumerate(zip(daren_names, daren_gmv, daren_orders, daren_months)):
|
||||
ax5.text(gmv_val + 2, i, f'¥{gmv_val:.0f}万 | {orders_val}单 | {months_val}月',
|
||||
va='center', fontsize=8, color='#333333')
|
||||
|
||||
ax5.set_yticks(range(len(daren_names)))
|
||||
ax5.set_yticklabels(daren_names, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax5.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax5.set_xlabel('累计 GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax5.set_title('达人 GMV 排行 TOP10', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax5.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# Add legend for months
|
||||
from matplotlib.patches import Patch
|
||||
legend_elements = [
|
||||
Patch(facecolor='#1F4E79', label='≥4个月(核心达人)'),
|
||||
Patch(facecolor='#4472C4', label='2-3个月(成长达人)'),
|
||||
Patch(facecolor='#9DC3E6', label='1个月(一次性达人)'),
|
||||
]
|
||||
ax5.legend(handles=legend_elements, fontsize=7, loc='lower right')
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 6: 达人生命周期曲线 ----
|
||||
ax6 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 6)
|
||||
for daren_name, color, ls in [('晚柠', '#1F4E79', '-'), ('念妈', '#70AD47', '-'),
|
||||
('学霸老王', '#ED7D31', '--'), ('学霸三人行', '#D64545', '--')]:
|
||||
vals = [v/10000 for v in daren_monthly[daren_name]]
|
||||
months_active = [i+1 for i, v in enumerate(vals) if v > 0]
|
||||
vals_active = [v for v in vals if v > 0]
|
||||
ax6.plot(months_active, vals_active, f'{ls}o', color=color, linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, label=daren_name)
|
||||
|
||||
ax6.set_xticks(range(1, 10))
|
||||
ax6.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax6.set_title('头部达人月度 GMV 走势', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax6.legend(fontsize=7)
|
||||
ax6.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'¥{v:.0f}万'))
|
||||
ax6.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 7: 新达人首月产出分布 ----
|
||||
ax7 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 7)
|
||||
all_first_gmv = []
|
||||
for m, vals in new_daren_first_gmv.items():
|
||||
all_first_gmv.extend(vals)
|
||||
|
||||
bins = [0, 2000, 5000, 10000, 50000, 100000, 300000, 2000000]
|
||||
labels = ['<¥2千', '¥2-5千', '¥5千-1万', '¥1-5万', '¥5-10万', '¥10-30万', '¥30万+']
|
||||
counts = []
|
||||
for i in range(len(bins)-1):
|
||||
counts.append(sum(1 for v in all_first_gmv if bins[i] <= v < bins[i+1]))
|
||||
|
||||
colors_hist = ['#9DC3E6']*3 + ['#FFC000']*1 + ['#ED7D31']*1 + ['#4472C4']*1 + ['#70AD47']*1
|
||||
ax7.bar(labels, counts, color=colors_hist, alpha=0.85)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (c, l) in enumerate(zip(counts, labels)):
|
||||
ax7.text(i, c + 0.2, str(c), ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax7.set_title('新达人首月 GMV 分布', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax7.set_ylabel('达人数', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax7.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 8: 月度新达人质量趋势 ----
|
||||
ax8 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 8)
|
||||
monthly_avg_first_gmv = {}
|
||||
for m, vals in new_daren_first_gmv.items():
|
||||
if vals:
|
||||
monthly_avg_first_gmv[m] = np.mean(vals) / 10000
|
||||
else:
|
||||
monthly_avg_first_gmv[m] = 0
|
||||
|
||||
months_order = ['9月', '10月', '11月', '12月', '1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月']
|
||||
avg_vals = [monthly_avg_first_gmv.get(m, 0) for m in months_order]
|
||||
count_vals = [len(new_daren_first_gmv.get(m, [])) for m in months_order]
|
||||
|
||||
ax8_2 = ax8.twinx()
|
||||
bars = ax8.bar(range(9), avg_vals, color='#4472C4', alpha=0.6, label='新达人首月均GMV')
|
||||
ax8.plot(range(9), count_vals, 'D-', color='#D64545', linewidth=2, markersize=8, label='新达人数')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (avg, cnt) in enumerate(zip(avg_vals, count_vals)):
|
||||
if avg > 0:
|
||||
ax8.text(i, avg + 2, f'¥{avg:.0f}万', ha='center', fontsize=7, fontweight='bold', color='#4472C4')
|
||||
if cnt > 0:
|
||||
ax8_2.text(i, cnt + 0.3, str(cnt), ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color='#D64545')
|
||||
|
||||
ax8.set_xticks(range(9))
|
||||
ax8.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax8.set_title('新达人数量 & 首月均GMV趋势', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax8.set_ylabel('首月均 GMV (万元)', fontsize=10, color='#4472C4')
|
||||
ax8_2.set_ylabel('新达人数', fontsize=10, color='#D64545')
|
||||
ax8.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='#4472C4')
|
||||
ax8_2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='#D64545')
|
||||
ax8.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 9: 达人活跃月数分布 ----
|
||||
ax9 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 9)
|
||||
# All 30 darens by active months
|
||||
daren_active_months_all = {
|
||||
1: 14, # one-month wonders
|
||||
2: 10, # two months
|
||||
3: 0,
|
||||
4: 3, # 晚柠, 念妈, 小花生, 百克力, 盈姐(好物推荐) - but we have diff counts
|
||||
5: 0,
|
||||
6: 0,
|
||||
7: 1, # 念妈
|
||||
8: 0,
|
||||
9: 1, # 晚柠
|
||||
}
|
||||
# Let me recalculate from the actual data
|
||||
from collections import Counter
|
||||
daren_month_counts = Counter()
|
||||
# From the earlier query results:
|
||||
daren_timeline = {
|
||||
'晚柠': 9, '念妈': 7, '学霸老王': 2, '学霸三人行': 2, '神奇瓜妈': 2,
|
||||
'小花生': 4, '老狼': 2, '小小鹰萱妈': 1, '百克力': 4, '开心妈妈': 2,
|
||||
'宣儿麻麻': 2, '亮爸': 1, '开心爸': 2, '海淀妈妈优选': 2,
|
||||
'四个娃': 1, '盈姐好物': 4, '小暖': 2, '盈姐天赋': 2, '萌萌姐': 1,
|
||||
'盈姐': 1, '哈佛亮爸': 1, '哈佛亮爸抖音': 1, '英语老师': 1,
|
||||
'乘风破浪': 1, '城市阅读': 1, '三兄弟': 1, '海淀刘姐': 1,
|
||||
'渣妈': 1, '瓦拉英语': 1, '科学家庭': 1,
|
||||
'肆个葫芦娃': 1, '英语老师Henry': 1, '读书学习吧': 1,
|
||||
'马老师': 1, '海淀贝妈': 1,
|
||||
}
|
||||
# Actually the total is 30 daren names
|
||||
|
||||
daren_month_stats = [9, 7, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
|
||||
bins_m = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]
|
||||
hist_m, _ = np.histogram(daren_month_stats, bins=bins_m)
|
||||
bar_labels = ['1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月', '6月', '7月', '8月', '9月+']
|
||||
ax9.bar(bar_labels[:len(hist_m)], hist_m, color=['#9DC3E6']*4 + ['#FFC000']*2 + ['#4472C4']*2 + ['#1F4E79']*1, alpha=0.85)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (c, l) in enumerate(zip(hist_m, bar_labels[:len(hist_m)])):
|
||||
if c > 0:
|
||||
ax9.text(i, c + 0.3, str(c), ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax9.set_title('达人活跃月数分布（30位达人）', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax9.set_xlabel('活跃月数', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax9.set_ylabel('达人数', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax9.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 10: 达人复播衰减率 ----
|
||||
ax10 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 10)
|
||||
|
||||
# Calculate retention: for darens that appeared in consecutive months
|
||||
# From the data, we can see:
|
||||
# 晚柠: every month (9/9 = 100% retention)
|
||||
# 念妈: appeared in 7 of 9 months
|
||||
# 百克力: Oct→Nov (100%), Nov→Dec (25%), Dec→Jan (0%), Feb→Mar (100%)
|
||||
# 小花生: Oct→Nov (100%), Nov→Dec (0%), Feb→Mar (100%), Mar→Apr (25%)
|
||||
|
||||
# General pattern from the data:
|
||||
# Month-to-month retention of repeat darens
|
||||
retention_data = {
|
||||
'Sep→Oct': (3, 3, 100), # 3 repeat darens, all 3 returned
|
||||
'Oct→Nov': (7, 5, 71), # 7 potential repeats, 5 returned
|
||||
'Nov→Dec': (7, 3, 43), # 7 potential repeats, 3 returned
|
||||
'Dec→Jan': (4, 3, 75),
|
||||
'Jan→Feb': (4, 1, 25),
|
||||
'Feb→Mar': (1, 1, 100),
|
||||
'Mar→Apr': (8, 4, 50),
|
||||
'Apr→May': (5, 3, 60),
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
periods = list(retention_data.keys())
|
||||
ret_vals = [v[2] for v in retention_data.values()]
|
||||
colors_ret = ['#70AD47' if v >= 60 else '#FFC000' if v >= 40 else '#D64545' for v in ret_vals]
|
||||
ax10.bar(periods, ret_vals, color=colors_ret, alpha=0.85)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (p, v) in enumerate(zip(periods, ret_vals)):
|
||||
ax10.text(i, v + 2, f'{v}%', ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax10.axhline(y=50, color='gray', linestyle='--', linewidth=1, alpha=0.5)
|
||||
ax10.text(7.5, 52, '50%线', fontsize=8, color='gray')
|
||||
ax10.set_title('达人月度留存率', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax10.set_ylabel('留存率 %', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax10.set_ylim(0, 110)
|
||||
ax10.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 11: 平台月度退款率趋势 ----
|
||||
ax11 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 11)
|
||||
# Approximate monthly refund rates by platform (from GMV/GSV calculations)
|
||||
# 抖音 monthly refund rates
|
||||
douyin_gmv = [185907, 37981, 123938, 0, 25987, 347826, 327023, 2362662, 524514]
|
||||
douyin_refund_est = [50, 55, 52, 0, 48, 56, 45, 51, 42] # estimated,抖音 consistently high
|
||||
xhs_refund_est = [25, 28, 32, 22, 28, 30, 26, 30, 27]
|
||||
wxxd_refund_est = [38, 34, 36, 30, 28, 42, 30, 35, 32]
|
||||
|
||||
for plat_data, color, ls, label in [
|
||||
(douyin_refund_est, '#EE3F4D', '-', '抖音'),
|
||||
(xhs_refund_est, '#FF6B81', '--', '小红书'),
|
||||
(wxxd_refund_est, '#FFC000', '-.', '视频号'),
|
||||
]:
|
||||
# Only show non-zero months
|
||||
xx = [i for i, v in enumerate(plat_data) if v > 0]
|
||||
yy = [plat_data[i] for i in xx]
|
||||
ax11.plot(xx, yy, f'{ls}o', color=color, linewidth=2, markersize=6, label=label)
|
||||
|
||||
ax11.set_xticks(range(9))
|
||||
ax11.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax11.set_title('分平台月度退款率估算', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax11.legend(fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax11.set_ylabel('退款率 %', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax11.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax11.set_ylim(0, 65)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 12: Summary Dashboard ----
|
||||
ax12 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 12)
|
||||
ax12.axis('off')
|
||||
|
||||
total_gmv_sum = sum(gmv)
|
||||
total_gsv_sum = sum(gsv)
|
||||
total_orders_sum = sum(orders)
|
||||
total_users_sum = sum(pay_users)
|
||||
avg_refund = sum(gmv[i]*refund_rate[i] for i in range(9)) / total_gmv_sum
|
||||
|
||||
# Calculate per-platform contribution share
|
||||
total_plat_gmv = sum(platform_totals.values())
|
||||
|
||||
summary = f"""
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
📊 达播渠道核心指标总览
|
||||
（2025.09-2026.05, 已剔除测试订单）
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
|
||||
📈 累计指标（9个月）
|
||||
• 累计订单：{total_orders_sum:,} 单
|
||||
• 累计 GMV：¥{total_gmv_sum/10000:.0f}万
|
||||
• 累计 GSV：¥{total_gsv_sum/10000:.0f}万
|
||||
• 付费用户：{total_users_sum:,} 人
|
||||
• 整体退款率：{avg_refund:.1f}%
|
||||
• 合作达人：30 人（55个渠道账号）
|
||||
• 月均 GMV：¥{total_gmv_sum/9/10000:.0f}万
|
||||
|
||||
🏆 达人贡献集中度
|
||||
• TOP1 晚柠：¥279万（占 25%）
|
||||
• TOP3 合计：¥700万（占 63%）
|
||||
• TOP5 合计：¥900万（占 81%）
|
||||
• 仅1月活跃达人：14人（占 47%）
|
||||
|
||||
📱 平台效能
|
||||
• 抖音：GMV¥394万 | 退款率 48.5% 🔴
|
||||
• 小红书：GMV¥392万 | 退款率 29.3% 🟢
|
||||
• 视频号：GMV¥333万 | 退款率 34.4% 🟡
|
||||
• 小红书 GSV 最高（¥277万）⚡
|
||||
|
||||
🔄 达人生命周期
|
||||
• 月度留存率波动 25%-100%
|
||||
• 学霸系首月爆发力强，次月衰减 87%+
|
||||
• 晚柠 9月全勤，稳定性最强
|
||||
• 4月新达人20位中仅 5人 5月复播
|
||||
|
||||
⚠️ 关键风险
|
||||
• 头部集中度高，1-2人流失冲击大
|
||||
• 抖音退款率逼近 50%，利润侵蚀严重
|
||||
• 新达人留存率低，拓展成本浪费
|
||||
• 学霸系 5月几乎停播，合作不确定性高
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
ax12.text(0.02, 0.98, summary, transform=ax12.transAxes, fontsize=8.5,
|
||||
verticalalignment='top', fontfamily='monospace',
|
||||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#F0F4F8', alpha=0.9))
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0, 1, 0.98])
|
||||
plt.savefig('/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_deep_analysis.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight',
|
||||
facecolor='white', edgecolor='none')
|
||||
print("✅ 图表已保存: /root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_deep_analysis.png")
|
||||
364
scripts/daren_deep_analysis_v2.py
Normal file
364
scripts/daren_deep_analysis_v2.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,364 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""
|
||||
瓦拉英语 达播渠道深度分析 v2
|
||||
测试订单定义: key_from 总订单≤5且全部退款
|
||||
"""
|
||||
import matplotlib
|
||||
matplotlib.use('Agg')
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
from collections import Counter
|
||||
import warnings
|
||||
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.rcParams['font.family'] = ['DejaVu Sans']
|
||||
plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# DATA (v2: test channels = ≤5 orders AND all refunded)
|
||||
# 剔除: wxxd-城市阅读-0, douyin-读书学习吧-0, xhs-念妈讲学习规划-0, xhs-瓦拉英语-0 (共5单)
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
months_label = ['9月', '10月', '11月', '12月', '1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月']
|
||||
|
||||
# Monthly summary
|
||||
gmv = [598899, 765617, 452373, 177911, 217891, 349825, 2521415, 4491548, 1601121]
|
||||
gsv = [361018, 467766, 254472, 131934, 153923, 155922, 1829794, 2509428, 1122583]
|
||||
orders = [301, 383, 227, 89, 109, 175, 767, 1427, 489]
|
||||
pay_users = [298, 376, 225, 86, 105, 175, 729, 1333, 462]
|
||||
refund_rate = [39.7, 38.9, 43.7, 25.8, 29.4, 55.4, 27.4, 44.1, 29.9]
|
||||
|
||||
# Daren count
|
||||
total_darens = [7, 10, 15, 4, 6, 2, 10, 23, 16]
|
||||
new_darens = [7, 7, 8, 0, 2, 1, 2, 18, 6]
|
||||
repeat_darens= [0, 3, 7, 4, 4, 1, 8, 5, 10]
|
||||
|
||||
# Platform monthly GMV (v2)
|
||||
platform_data = {
|
||||
'抖音': [185907, 37981, 123938, 0, 25987, 347826, 327023, 2360713, 524514],
|
||||
'小红书': [259870, 277861, 45977, 173913, 103948, 1999, 1542345, 829148, 678424],
|
||||
'视频号': [149925, 449775, 279860, 3998, 87956, 0, 652047, 1301687, 398183],
|
||||
'有赞': [3197, 0, 2598, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
|
||||
}
|
||||
platform_gmv_totals = {'抖音': 3933473, '小红书': 3923505, '视频号': 3323431, '有赞': 5795}
|
||||
platform_refund = {'抖音': 48.5, '小红书': 29.3, '视频号': 34.4, '有赞': 0.0}
|
||||
|
||||
# Top darens
|
||||
darens_top = [
|
||||
('晚柠', 914, 2788085, 9, '小红书'),
|
||||
('念妈', 879, 2335959, 7, '抖音+视频号'),
|
||||
('学霸老王', 611, 1868984, 2, '多平台'),
|
||||
('学霸三人行', 477, 1497183, 2, '多平台'),
|
||||
('神奇瓜妈', 156, 521313, 2, '视频号'),
|
||||
('小花生', 146, 365408, 4, '视频号'),
|
||||
('老狼聊育儿', 110, 352607, 2, '视频号'),
|
||||
('小小鹰萱妈', 174, 347826, 1, '抖音'),
|
||||
('百克力', 151, 301849, 4, '多平台'),
|
||||
('开心妈妈', 62, 123938, 2, '小红书'),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
# New daren first-month GMV data (all daren channels' first month)
|
||||
new_first_gmv_raw = {
|
||||
'晚柠(红)': 259870, '念妈(抖)': 183908, '念妈(视)': 149925, '小小骆驼': 1999,
|
||||
'如秀(有)': 1999, '刘敏 生物': 599, '张声涛 Nelson': 599,
|
||||
'百克力(视)': 157921, '小花生': 137931, '百克力(红)': 131934, '开心妈妈': 121939,
|
||||
'开心爸': 81959, '乘风破浪': 3998, '马老师': 1999,
|
||||
'亮爸': 95952, '盈姐好物': 57971, '盈姐(红)': 19990, '哈佛亮爸(红)': 17991,
|
||||
'哈佛亮爸(抖)': 15992, '盈姐(抖)': 15992, '大悦王': 1999,
|
||||
'海淀妈妈': 71964, '海淀贝妈': 1999,
|
||||
'小小鹰萱妈': 347826,
|
||||
'学霸老王首发(抖)': 941088, '学霸三人行首发(抖)': 759185, '神奇瓜妈': 513717,
|
||||
'老狼': 132727, '四个娃': 69162, '宣儿麻麻': 55170,
|
||||
'肆个葫芦娃': 3598, '渣妈': 3598, '海淀刘姐': 3598, '英语老师Henry(美)': 3598,
|
||||
'英语老师Henry(视)': 7196, '科学家庭': 1999, '念妈(红)': 3598,
|
||||
'学霸老王(红)': 367000, '学霸老王(抖)': 165910, '学霸老王(视)': 177104,
|
||||
'学霸三人行(红)': 232674, '学霸三人行(抖)': 200690, '学霸三人行(视)': 296638,
|
||||
'老狼(视)': 219880, '念妈(视新)': 52371, '学霸老王(视新)': 26386,
|
||||
'学霸三人行(视新)': 3998, '三兄弟': 3598, '神奇瓜妈(视新)': 1999,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# For new daren analysis by month (first appearance):
|
||||
first_gmv_by_month = {
|
||||
'9月': [259870, 183908, 149925, 1999, 1999, 599, 599],
|
||||
'10月': [157921, 137931, 131934, 121939, 81959, 3998, 1999],
|
||||
'11月': [95952, 57971, 19990, 17991, 15992, 15992, 1999, 1999],
|
||||
'12月': [],
|
||||
'1月': [71964, 1999],
|
||||
'2月': [347826],
|
||||
'3月': [1525954, 23587],
|
||||
'4月': [941088, 759185, 513717, 367000, 296638, 232674, 200690, 177104, 165910, 132727, 69162, 55170, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 3598, 1999],
|
||||
'5月': [219880, 52371, 26386, 3998, 3598, 1999],
|
||||
}
|
||||
# note: darens that appear on multiple platforms simultaneously in their first month
|
||||
# have their per-platform GMV listed but count as ONE daren
|
||||
|
||||
# Key darens monthly GMV tracking
|
||||
daren_monthly = {
|
||||
'晚柠': [259870, 23988, 5997, 171914, 101949, 1999, 1525954, 95947, 600467],
|
||||
'念妈': [333833, 103948, 207896, 0, 39980, 0, 714813, 454952, 484135],
|
||||
'学霸老王': [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1651102, 217882],
|
||||
'学霸三人行': [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1489187, 7996],
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# CHARTS - 12 panels
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(22, 28))
|
||||
fig.suptitle('瓦拉英语 达播渠道深度分析（已剔除 ≤5单且全退的测试渠道，共剔4渠道5单）',
|
||||
fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', y=0.988)
|
||||
|
||||
x = np.arange(9)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 1: 月度核心指标 ----
|
||||
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 1)
|
||||
bars = ax1.bar(x, [g/10000 for g in gmv], color='#4472C4', alpha=0.85, label='GMV')
|
||||
ax1.plot(x, [g/10000 for g in gsv], 'D-', color='#70AD47', linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, label='GSV')
|
||||
for i, (r, o) in enumerate(zip(refund_rate, orders)):
|
||||
ax1.text(i, gmv[i]/10000 + 2, f'{r:.0f}%', ha='center', fontsize=7, color='#D64545', fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax1.text(i, gmv[i]/10000 + 8, f'{o}单', ha='center', fontsize=6, color='#888')
|
||||
ax1.set_xticks(x); ax1.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax1.set_title('月度 GMV/GSV & 退款率', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax1.legend(fontsize=8, loc='upper left')
|
||||
ax1.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'¥{v:.0f}万'))
|
||||
ax1.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 2: 达人拓展 ----
|
||||
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 2)
|
||||
ax2.bar(x - 0.15, new_darens, 0.3, color='#70AD47', alpha=0.85, label='新达人')
|
||||
ax2.bar(x + 0.15, repeat_darens, 0.3, color='#4472C4', alpha=0.85, label='复发达人')
|
||||
ax2.plot(x, total_darens, 'D-', color='#ED7D31', linewidth=2, markersize=8, label='达人总数')
|
||||
for i, t in enumerate(total_darens):
|
||||
ax2.text(i, t + 0.3, str(t), ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax2.set_xticks(x); ax2.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax2.set_title('达人拓展：新达人 vs 复发达人', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax2.legend(fontsize=8); ax2.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 3: 平台GMV堆叠 ----
|
||||
ax3 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 3)
|
||||
bottom = np.zeros(9)
|
||||
for plat, color in [('抖音', '#EE3F4D'), ('小红书', '#FF6B81'), ('视频号', '#FFC000'), ('有赞', '#C0C0C0')]:
|
||||
vals = [v/10000 for v in platform_data[plat]]
|
||||
ax3.bar(x, vals, 0.6, bottom=bottom, color=color, alpha=0.85, label=plat)
|
||||
bottom += np.array(vals)
|
||||
for i in range(9):
|
||||
if gmv[i] > 0:
|
||||
ax3.text(i, gmv[i]/10000 + 3, f'退{refund_rate[i]:.0f}%', ha='center', fontsize=7, color='#D64545')
|
||||
ax3.set_xticks(x); ax3.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax3.set_title('分平台 GMV 构成', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax3.legend(fontsize=8, loc='upper left')
|
||||
ax3.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'¥{v:.0f}万'))
|
||||
ax3.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 4: 平台效能气泡 ----
|
||||
ax4 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 4)
|
||||
for plat, color in [('抖音', '#EE3F4D'), ('小红书', '#FF6B81'), ('视频号', '#FFC000')]:
|
||||
gmv_v = platform_gmv_totals[plat] / 10000
|
||||
ref_v = platform_refund[plat]
|
||||
gsv_v = gmv_v * (1 - ref_v/100)
|
||||
ax4.scatter(ref_v, gmv_v, s=gsv_v*30, alpha=0.75, color=color, edgecolors='black', linewidth=1.5)
|
||||
ax4.annotate(f'{plat}\nGMV¥{gmv_v:.0f}万 退款{ref_v:.1f}%\nGSV¥{gsv_v:.0f}万',
|
||||
(ref_v, gmv_v), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(15, -15),
|
||||
fontsize=9, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax4.set_xlabel('退款率 %', fontsize=11); ax4.set_ylabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax4.set_title('平台效能矩阵（气泡=GSV）', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax4.grid(alpha=0.3); ax4.set_xlim(25, 55)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 5: 达人贡献TOP10 ----
|
||||
ax5 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 5)
|
||||
names = [d[0] for d in darens_top]
|
||||
gmv_vals = [d[2]/10000 for d in darens_top]
|
||||
months_vals = [d[3] for d in darens_top]
|
||||
bar_colors = ['#1F4E79' if m >= 4 else '#4472C4' if m >= 2 else '#9DC3E6' for m in months_vals]
|
||||
bars = ax5.barh(range(len(names)), gmv_vals, color=bar_colors, alpha=0.85, height=0.7)
|
||||
cum_pct = np.cumsum(gmv_vals) / sum(gmv_vals) * 100
|
||||
ax5_2 = ax5.twiny()
|
||||
ax5_2.plot(cum_pct, range(len(names)), 'D-', color='#D64545', linewidth=2, markersize=6)
|
||||
ax5_2.set_xlabel('累计占比 %', fontsize=10, color='#D64545'); ax5_2.tick_params(axis='x', labelcolor='#D64545')
|
||||
for i, (n, g, o, m) in enumerate([(d[0], d[2]/10000, d[1], d[3]) for d in darens_top]):
|
||||
ax5.text(g + 2, i, f'¥{g:.0f}万 | {o}单 | {m}月', va='center', fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax5.set_yticks(range(len(names))); ax5.set_yticklabels(names, fontsize=9); ax5.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax5.set_xlabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax5.set_title('达人 GMV TOP10 & 累计占比', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax5.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
from matplotlib.patches import Patch
|
||||
ax5.legend(handles=[Patch(facecolor='#1F4E79', label='≥4月核心'), Patch(facecolor='#4472C4', label='2-3月成长'), Patch(facecolor='#9DC3E6', label='1月首次')], fontsize=7, loc='lower right')
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 6: 头部达人月度走势 ----
|
||||
ax6 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 6)
|
||||
for dname, color, ls in [('晚柠', '#1F4E79', '-'), ('念妈', '#70AD47', '-'), ('学霸老王', '#ED7D31', '--'), ('学霸三人行', '#D64545', '--')]:
|
||||
vals = daren_monthly[dname]
|
||||
mx = [i+1 for i, v in enumerate(vals) if v > 0]
|
||||
my = [v/10000 for v in vals if v > 0]
|
||||
ax6.plot(mx, my, f'{ls}o', color=color, linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, label=dname)
|
||||
ax6.set_xticks(range(1, 10)); ax6.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax6.set_title('头部达人月度 GMV 趋势', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax6.legend(fontsize=7); ax6.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'¥{v:.0f}万'))
|
||||
ax6.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 7: 新达人首月GMV分布 ----
|
||||
ax7 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 7)
|
||||
all_first = []
|
||||
for vals in first_gmv_by_month.values():
|
||||
all_first.extend(vals)
|
||||
bins = [0, 2000, 5000, 10000, 50000, 100000, 300000, 2000000]
|
||||
bl = ['<¥2千', '¥2-5千', '¥5千-1万', '¥1-5万', '¥5-10万', '¥10-30万', '¥30万+']
|
||||
counts = [sum(1 for v in all_first if bins[i] <= v < bins[i+1]) for i in range(len(bins)-1)]
|
||||
cc = ['#9DC3E6']*3 + ['#FFC000']*1 + ['#ED7D31']*1 + ['#4472C4']*1 + ['#70AD47']*1
|
||||
ax7.bar(bl, counts, color=cc, alpha=0.85)
|
||||
for i, c in enumerate(counts):
|
||||
ax7.text(i, c + 0.3, str(c), ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax7.set_title('首月 GMV 分布（55个渠道首秀）', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax7.set_ylabel('渠道数', fontsize=11); ax7.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 8: 月度新达人数量&质量 ----
|
||||
ax8 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 8)
|
||||
avg_first = []
|
||||
cnt_first = []
|
||||
for m in months_label:
|
||||
vals = first_gmv_by_month.get(m, [])
|
||||
cnt_first.append(len(vals))
|
||||
avg_first.append(np.mean(vals)/10000 if vals else 0)
|
||||
ax8_2 = ax8.twinx()
|
||||
ax8.bar(x, avg_first, color='#4472C4', alpha=0.6, label='首月均GMV')
|
||||
ax8.plot(x, cnt_first, 'D-', color='#D64545', linewidth=2, markersize=8, label='新渠道数')
|
||||
for i in range(9):
|
||||
if avg_first[i] > 0:
|
||||
ax8.text(i, avg_first[i] + 2, f'¥{avg_first[i]:.0f}万', ha='center', fontsize=7, fontweight='bold', color='#4472C4')
|
||||
if cnt_first[i] > 0:
|
||||
ax8_2.text(i, cnt_first[i] + 0.5, str(cnt_first[i]), ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color='#D64545')
|
||||
ax8.set_xticks(x); ax8.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax8.set_title('新渠道数量 & 首月均GMV', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax8.set_ylabel('首月均GMV(万元)', fontsize=10, color='#4472C4'); ax8.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='#4472C4')
|
||||
ax8_2.set_ylabel('新渠道数', fontsize=10, color='#D64545'); ax8_2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='#D64545')
|
||||
ax8.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 9: 达人活跃月数分布 ----
|
||||
ax9 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 9)
|
||||
# From the 25 daren names above + the long-tail ones
|
||||
# Total unique daren names: ~30 (some have platform variants)
|
||||
# Active months distribution (from the per-daren monthly data)
|
||||
daren_active_counts = {
|
||||
'晚柠': 9, '念妈': 7, '百克力': 4, '小花生': 4, '盈姐(好物)': 4,
|
||||
'学霸老王': 2, '学霸三人行': 2, '神奇瓜妈': 2, '老狼': 2, '宣儿麻麻': 2,
|
||||
'开心妈妈': 2, '开心爸': 2, '海淀妈妈': 2, '小暖': 2, '盈姐(天赋)': 2,
|
||||
'小小鹰萱妈': 1, '亮爸': 1, '四个娃': 1, '萌萌姐': 1, '盈姐(红)': 1,
|
||||
'哈佛亮爸(红)': 1, '哈佛亮爸(抖)': 1, '英语老师Henry': 1,
|
||||
'乘风破浪': 1, '马老师': 1, '海淀贝妈': 1, '肆个葫芦娃': 1, '渣妈': 1,
|
||||
'海淀刘姐': 1, '三兄弟': 1, '科学家庭': 1, '如秀(有)': 1, '大悦王': 1,
|
||||
'刘敏 生物': 1, '张声涛 Nelson': 1, '小小骆驼': 1,
|
||||
}
|
||||
# Wait, some of these are test channels (<5 orders, all refunded). Let me exclude those.
|
||||
# Excluded: 城市阅读, 读书学习吧, 念妈(红), 瓦拉英语
|
||||
# Let me also check: 刘敏 生物 and 张声涛 Nelson have status=1 accounts but are ¥599 test-price
|
||||
# Under new definition they are NOT excluded (they are completed, not refunded)
|
||||
|
||||
month_counts = Counter(daren_active_counts.values())
|
||||
bl9 = ['1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月', '6月', '7月', '8月', '9月+']
|
||||
vals9 = [month_counts.get(i, 0) for i in range(1, 10)]
|
||||
c9 = ['#9DC3E6']*3 + ['#FFC000']*2 + ['#4472C4']*3 + ['#1F4E79']
|
||||
ax9.bar(bl9, vals9, color=c9[:len(vals9)], alpha=0.85)
|
||||
for i, v in enumerate(vals9):
|
||||
if v > 0:
|
||||
ax9.text(i, v + 0.2, str(v), ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax9.set_title('达人活跃月数分布', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax9.set_xlabel('活跃月数'); ax9.set_ylabel('达人数')
|
||||
ax9.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 10: 达人月度留存率 ----
|
||||
ax10 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 10)
|
||||
retention = {
|
||||
'9→10': (3, 3, 100), '10→11': (7, 5, 71), '11→12': (7, 3, 43),
|
||||
'12→1': (4, 3, 75), '1→2': (4, 1, 25), '2→3': (1, 1, 100),
|
||||
'3→4': (8, 4, 50), '4→5': (5, 3, 60),
|
||||
}
|
||||
periods = list(retention.keys())
|
||||
ret_vals = [v[2] for v in retention.values()]
|
||||
ret_colors = ['#70AD47' if v >= 60 else '#FFC000' if v >= 40 else '#D64545' for v in ret_vals]
|
||||
ax10.bar(periods, ret_vals, color=ret_colors, alpha=0.85)
|
||||
for i, (p, v) in enumerate(zip(periods, ret_vals)):
|
||||
ax10.text(i, v + 2, f'{v}%', ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax10.axhline(y=50, color='gray', linestyle='--', linewidth=1, alpha=0.5)
|
||||
ax10.text(7.2, 52, '50%线', fontsize=8, color='gray')
|
||||
ax10.set_title('达人月度留存率（上月达人本月仍在播）', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax10.set_ylabel('留存率 %', fontsize=11); ax10.set_ylim(0, 110)
|
||||
ax10.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 11: 分平台月度退款率 ----
|
||||
ax11 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 11)
|
||||
douyin_ref = [50, 55, 52, 0, 48, 56, 45, 51, 42]
|
||||
xhs_ref = [25, 28, 32, 22, 28, 30, 26, 30, 27]
|
||||
wxxd_ref = [38, 34, 36, 30, 28, 0, 30, 35, 32]
|
||||
for plat_vals, color, ls, label in [
|
||||
(douyin_ref, '#EE3F4D', '-', '抖音'), (xhs_ref, '#FF6B81', '--', '小红书'), (wxxd_ref, '#FFC000', '-.', '视频号')
|
||||
]:
|
||||
xx = [i for i, v in enumerate(plat_vals) if v > 0]
|
||||
yy = [plat_vals[i] for i in xx]
|
||||
ax11.plot(xx, yy, f'{ls}o', color=color, linewidth=2, markersize=6, label=label)
|
||||
ax11.set_xticks(x); ax11.set_xticklabels(months_label)
|
||||
ax11.set_title('分平台月度退款率估算', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax11.legend(fontsize=8); ax11.set_ylabel('退款率 %', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax11.grid(alpha=0.3); ax11.set_ylim(0, 65)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- Chart 12: 总结面板 ----
|
||||
ax12 = fig.add_subplot(4, 3, 12); ax12.axis('off')
|
||||
total_gmv = sum(gmv); total_gsv = sum(gsv); total_ord = sum(orders)
|
||||
avg_ref = sum(gmv[i]*refund_rate[i] for i in range(9)) / total_gmv
|
||||
total_unq_darens = len(daren_active_counts) # Hmm, let me just hardcode 36 or so
|
||||
# Let me count from the per-daren data: from the query results, there are ~33 unique daren names
|
||||
total_darens_unq = 33
|
||||
|
||||
summary = f"""
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
📊 达播渠道核心指标总览
|
||||
（剔除 ≤5单且全退测试渠道：4渠道5单）
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
|
||||
📈 累计指标（2025.09 - 2026.05，9个月）
|
||||
• 订单：{total_ord:,} 单
|
||||
• GMV：¥{total_gmv/10000:.0f}万
|
||||
• GSV：¥{total_gsv/10000:.0f}万
|
||||
• 付费用户：{sum(pay_users):,} 人
|
||||
• 整体退款率：{avg_ref:.1f}%
|
||||
• 达人渠道：51 个（{total_darens_unq} 位达人）
|
||||
• 月均 GMV：¥{total_gmv/9/10000:.0f}万
|
||||
|
||||
🏆 贡献集中度
|
||||
• TOP1 晚柠：¥279万（占 25.0%）
|
||||
• TOP3：¥700万（占 62.6%）
|
||||
• TOP5：¥907万（占 81.1%）
|
||||
• 仅1月活跃：~17位（占 52%）
|
||||
|
||||
📱 平台效能
|
||||
• 抖音：GMV¥393万 | 退款率 48.5% 🔴
|
||||
• 小红书：GMV¥392万 | 退款率 29.3% 🟢
|
||||
• 视频号：GMV¥332万 | 退款率 34.4% 🟡
|
||||
→ 小红书 GSV 最高（¥277万），净收率 70.7%
|
||||
|
||||
🔄 生命周期关键发现
|
||||
• 达人月留存率 25-100%，均值~65%
|
||||
• 学霸系：4月爆发（¥314万），5月断崖（¥23万，-93%）
|
||||
• 晚柠：9月全勤，稳定性标杆
|
||||
• 新签达人次月留存仅 50%
|
||||
• 55个渠道首秀中 38% 首月GMV不足¥5千
|
||||
|
||||
⚠️ TOP风险
|
||||
• 学霸系合作不确定性（5月接近停播）
|
||||
• 抖音退款逼近50%，利润侵蚀严重
|
||||
• 52%达人一次性合作，拓展成本浪费
|
||||
• 头部2人贡献45%GMV，依赖度极高
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
ax12.text(0.02, 0.98, summary, transform=ax12.transAxes, fontsize=8.5,
|
||||
verticalalignment='top', fontfamily='monospace',
|
||||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#F0F4F8', alpha=0.9))
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0, 1, 0.985])
|
||||
plt.savefig('/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_deep_analysis_v2.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight',
|
||||
facecolor='white', edgecolor='none')
|
||||
print("✅ 图表已保存: /root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_deep_analysis_v2.png")
|
||||
|
||||
# Print key data for reference
|
||||
print(f"\n总计: {total_ord}单 | GMV¥{total_gmv/10000:.1f}万 | GSV¥{total_gsv/10000:.1f}万 | 退款率{avg_ref:.1f}%")
|
||||
print(f"剔除: 4测试渠道, 5订单, ¥13,143")
|
||||
print(f"达人总数: {total_unq_darens}位 | 渠道总数: 51个 | 月均达人: {(total_darens_unq*sum(total_darens)/len(total_darens))**0.5:.0f}")
|
||||
630
scripts/daren_dim_charts.py
Normal file
630
scripts/daren_dim_charts.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,630 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""达播业务三维度深度分析图表：达人 × 月度 × 平台"""
|
||||
import openpyxl, glob, os, numpy as np
|
||||
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
||||
from collections import defaultdict
|
||||
import matplotlib
|
||||
matplotlib.use('Agg')
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
|
||||
|
||||
plt.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Noto Sans CJK SC', 'SimHei', 'DejaVu Sans']
|
||||
plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
|
||||
|
||||
# === Colors ===
|
||||
C_BLUE = '#2563EB'; C_GOLD = '#F59E0B'; C_RED = '#EF4444'; C_GREEN = '#10B981'
|
||||
C_PURPLE = '#8B5CF6'; C_TEAL = '#14B8A6'; C_PINK = '#EC4899'; C_ORANGE = '#F97316'
|
||||
C_DARK = '#1F2937'; C_GRAY = '#6B7280'; C_LIGHT = '#F3F4F6'
|
||||
PALETTE = [C_BLUE, C_GOLD, C_RED, C_PURPLE, C_GREEN, C_PINK, C_TEAL, C_ORANGE, '#6366F1', '#84CC16']
|
||||
PALETTE_SOFT = ['#BFDBFE','#FDE68A','#FECACA','#C4B5FD','#A7F3D0','#FBCFE8','#99F6E4','#FDBA74','#C7D2FE','#BEF264']
|
||||
|
||||
# === Data loading ===
|
||||
files = glob.glob('/root/.openclaw/media/inbound/*3403f15a*')
|
||||
wb = openpyxl.load_workbook(files[0])
|
||||
ws = wb['Sheet1']
|
||||
|
||||
def excel_date_to_str(val):
|
||||
if val is None: return None
|
||||
if isinstance(val, datetime): return val.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
|
||||
if isinstance(val, str): return val
|
||||
if isinstance(val, (int, float)):
|
||||
try: return (datetime(1899,12,30)+timedelta(days=int(val))).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
|
||||
except: return str(val)
|
||||
return str(val)
|
||||
|
||||
data = []
|
||||
for row in ws.iter_rows(min_row=2, max_row=ws.max_row, values_only=True):
|
||||
name = str(row[0]).strip() if row[0] else ''
|
||||
if '合计' in name or '总计' in name or row[3] is None: continue
|
||||
data.append({
|
||||
'name': name, 'date': excel_date_to_str(row[1]),
|
||||
'platform': str(row[2]).strip() if row[2] else '',
|
||||
'orders': row[3], 'gmv': row[4] or 0, 'refund_orders': row[5] or 0,
|
||||
'refund_amount': row[6] or 0, 'gsv': row[10] or 0,
|
||||
})
|
||||
|
||||
# Name norm
|
||||
name_map = {
|
||||
'晚柠也是个妈妈了':'晚柠','晚柠':'晚柠','念妈讲学习规划':'念妈','念妈':'念妈',
|
||||
'学霸三人行':'学霸三人行','学霸老王':'学霸老王',
|
||||
'开心妈妈学习宝藏':'开心妈妈','开心爸育儿':'开心爸',
|
||||
'小花生网':'小花生网','小花生':'小花生网','盈姐':'盈姐',
|
||||
'百克力':'百克力','亮爸':'亮爸',
|
||||
'万物分销':'万物分销','万物内购':'万物分销','万物团购':'万物分销',
|
||||
'小小鹰萱妈':'小小鹰萱妈','老狼聊育儿':'老狼聊育儿',
|
||||
'海淀妈妈优选':'海淀妈妈优选','神奇瓜妈聊成长':'神奇瓜妈',
|
||||
'宣儿妈妈':'宣儿妈妈','宣儿麻麻':'宣儿妈妈',
|
||||
'四个娃的组合生活':'四个娃的组合生活','肆个葫芦娃的妈':'四个娃的组合生活',
|
||||
'小暖阿姨慢一点':'小暖阿姨',
|
||||
}
|
||||
for r in data: r['norm_name'] = name_map.get(r['name'], r['name'])
|
||||
|
||||
# Month mapping for raw date strings
|
||||
MONTH_ORDER = ['2025-09','2025-10','2025-11','2025-12','2026-01','2026-02','2026-03','2026-04','2026-05']
|
||||
MONTH_LABELS = ['9月','10月','11月','12月','1月','2月','3月','4月','5月']
|
||||
|
||||
def parse_month(date_str):
|
||||
"""Parse date to standardized YYYY-MM"""
|
||||
if not date_str: return None
|
||||
d = date_str[:7]
|
||||
remap = {'2026-09':'2025-09','2026-10':'2025-10','2026-11':'2025-11','2026-12':'2025-12',
|
||||
'2025-12':'2025-12'}
|
||||
return remap.get(d, d)
|
||||
|
||||
# Platform merge
|
||||
def merge_platform(p):
|
||||
if '三开' in p: return '三开'
|
||||
if '小红书' in p: return '小红书'
|
||||
if '抖音' in p and '视频号' in p: return '抖音+视频号'
|
||||
if '视频号' in p: return '视频号'
|
||||
if '抖音' in p: return '抖音'
|
||||
if '分销' in p: return '分销'
|
||||
if '万物' in p: return '万物'
|
||||
if '公众号' in p: return '公众号'
|
||||
if '社群' in p: return '社群'
|
||||
if '微信小店' in p: return '微信小店'
|
||||
return p
|
||||
|
||||
# === Prepare cross-dimensional data ===
|
||||
# 1. By influencer × month
|
||||
inf_monthly = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(lambda: {'gmv':0,'gsv':0,'orders':0,'ref_ords':0}))
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
m = parse_month(r['date'])
|
||||
if m: inf_monthly[r['norm_name']][m]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
if m: inf_monthly[r['norm_name']][m]['gsv'] += r['gsv']
|
||||
if m: inf_monthly[r['norm_name']][m]['orders'] += r['orders']
|
||||
if m: inf_monthly[r['norm_name']][m]['ref_ords'] += r['refund_orders']
|
||||
|
||||
# 2. By platform × month
|
||||
plat_monthly = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(lambda: {'gmv':0,'gsv':0,'orders':0,'ref_ords':0}))
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
m = parse_month(r['date'])
|
||||
p = merge_platform(r['platform'])
|
||||
if m: plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
if m: plat_monthly[p][m]['gsv'] += r['gsv']
|
||||
if m: plat_monthly[p][m]['orders'] += r['orders']
|
||||
if m: plat_monthly[p][m]['ref_ords'] += r['refund_orders']
|
||||
|
||||
# Get top influencers
|
||||
inf_total = defaultdict(lambda: {'gmv':0})
|
||||
for r in data: inf_total[r['norm_name']]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
TOP_N = 8
|
||||
# Filter out empty names
|
||||
inf_filtered = [(k,v) for k,v in inf_total.items() if k and k.strip()]
|
||||
top_inf = [x[0] for x in sorted(inf_filtered, key=lambda x:x[1]['gmv'], reverse=True)[:TOP_N]]
|
||||
|
||||
# Get top platforms
|
||||
plat_total = defaultdict(lambda: {'gmv':0})
|
||||
for r in data: plat_total[merge_platform(r['platform'])]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
top_plat = [x[0] for x in sorted(plat_total.items(), key=lambda x:x[1]['gmv'], reverse=True) if x[1]['gmv']>0 and x[0].strip()]
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"Top influencers: {top_inf}")
|
||||
print(f"Top platforms: {top_plat}")
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# FIGURE A: 达人维度深度分析 (2 rows × 3 cols)
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
figA, axesA = plt.subplots(2, 3, figsize=(22, 14))
|
||||
figA.patch.set_facecolor('#FAFBFC')
|
||||
|
||||
# A1: 达人月度GMV热力图
|
||||
ax = axesA[0, 0]
|
||||
heat = np.zeros((len(top_inf), len(MONTH_ORDER)))
|
||||
for i, name in enumerate(top_inf):
|
||||
for j, m in enumerate(MONTH_ORDER):
|
||||
heat[i, j] = inf_monthly[name][m]['gmv'] / 10000
|
||||
|
||||
masked = np.ma.masked_equal(heat, 0)
|
||||
im = ax.imshow(masked, cmap='YlOrRd', aspect='auto', vmin=0, vmax=150)
|
||||
for i in range(len(top_inf)):
|
||||
for j in range(len(MONTH_ORDER)):
|
||||
v = heat[i, j]
|
||||
if v > 0:
|
||||
col = 'white' if v > 80 else C_DARK
|
||||
ax.text(j, i, f'{v:.0f}', ha='center', va='center', fontsize=8, fontweight='bold', color=col)
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(MONTH_ORDER))); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(range(len(top_inf))); ax.set_yticklabels(top_inf, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('达人月度 GMV 热力图 (万元)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
plt.colorbar(im, ax=ax, shrink=0.8, pad=0.02).set_label('万元', fontsize=9)
|
||||
|
||||
# A2: 达人月度退款率走势
|
||||
ax = axesA[0, 1]
|
||||
for idx, name in enumerate(top_inf):
|
||||
rates = []
|
||||
for m in MONTH_ORDER:
|
||||
s = inf_monthly[name][m]
|
||||
rates.append((s['ref_ords']/s['orders']*100) if s['orders']>0 else np.nan)
|
||||
ax.plot(range(len(MONTH_ORDER)), rates, 'o-', color=PALETTE[idx], linewidth=2,
|
||||
markersize=7, markerfacecolor='white', markeredgewidth=2, label=name, alpha=0.9)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.axhline(y=40, color=C_RED, linestyle='--', alpha=0.3, linewidth=1)
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(MONTH_ORDER))); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('达人月度退款率走势', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('退款率 (%)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=7.5, ncol=2, framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
ax.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 85)
|
||||
|
||||
# A3: 达人综合评分雷达 (GMV, GSV, 订单量, 退款率倒数, 单均GMV, 场次)
|
||||
ax = axesA[0, 2]
|
||||
# Normalize metrics for radar
|
||||
metrics = {}
|
||||
for name in top_inf[:6]:
|
||||
s = inf_total[name]
|
||||
total_s = inf_monthly[name]
|
||||
all_orders = sum(v['orders'] for v in total_s.values())
|
||||
all_gmv = sum(v['gmv'] for v in total_s.values())
|
||||
all_gsv = sum(v['gsv'] for v in total_s.values())
|
||||
all_ref = sum(v['ref_ords'] for v in total_s.values())
|
||||
sessions = sum(1 for v in total_s.values() if v['orders']>0)
|
||||
metrics[name] = {
|
||||
'GMV': all_gmv,
|
||||
'GSV': all_gsv,
|
||||
'订单量': all_orders,
|
||||
'留存率': (1 - all_ref/all_orders)*100 if all_orders>0 else 100,
|
||||
'均单额': all_gmv/all_orders if all_orders>0 else 0,
|
||||
'场次': sessions,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# Normalize
|
||||
maxes = {}
|
||||
for k in ['GMV','GSV','订单量','留存率','均单额','场次']:
|
||||
maxes[k] = max(metrics[name][k] for name in metrics)
|
||||
|
||||
categories = ['GMV', 'GSV', '订单量', '留存率', '均单额', '场次']
|
||||
N_cat = len(categories)
|
||||
angles = np.linspace(0, 2*np.pi, N_cat, endpoint=False).tolist()
|
||||
angles += angles[:1]
|
||||
|
||||
for idx, (name, m) in enumerate(metrics.items()):
|
||||
values = [m[k]/maxes[k]*100 for k in categories]
|
||||
values += values[:1]
|
||||
ax.fill(angles, values, alpha=0.08, color=PALETTE[idx])
|
||||
ax.plot(angles, values, 'o-', color=PALETTE[idx], linewidth=2, markersize=5, label=name)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(angles[:-1]); ax.set_xticklabels(categories, fontsize=9, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax.set_title('达人能力雷达图 (TOP6)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
||||
ax.legend(loc='lower right', fontsize=7.5, bbox_to_anchor=(1.3,0))
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 110)
|
||||
|
||||
# A4: 达人GSV贡献占比 (按时间)
|
||||
ax = axesA[1, 0]
|
||||
# Stacked area chart of top5 + others
|
||||
top5_names = top_inf[:5]
|
||||
monthly_stacked = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(float))
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
m = parse_month(r['date'])
|
||||
n = r['norm_name'] if r['norm_name'] in top5_names else '其他'
|
||||
if m: monthly_stacked[m][n] += r['gsv']/10000
|
||||
|
||||
areas = {}
|
||||
for n in top5_names + ['其他']:
|
||||
areas[n] = [monthly_stacked[m].get(n,0) for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
|
||||
bottom = np.zeros(len(MONTH_ORDER))
|
||||
for idx, name in enumerate(top5_names + ['其他']):
|
||||
vals = areas[name]
|
||||
ax.fill_between(range(len(MONTH_ORDER)), bottom, bottom+np.array(vals),
|
||||
color=PALETTE[idx], alpha=0.8, label=name, linewidth=0.5, edgecolor='white')
|
||||
bottom += np.array(vals)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(MONTH_ORDER))); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度 GSV 达人贡献占比 (万元)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('GSV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=8, ncol=2, framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# A5: 达人单均GMV & 退款率散点 (by month bubble)
|
||||
ax = axesA[1, 1]
|
||||
for idx, name in enumerate(top_inf[:6]):
|
||||
x_vals, y_vals, s_vals = [], [], []
|
||||
for m in MONTH_ORDER:
|
||||
s = inf_monthly[name][m]
|
||||
if s['orders'] > 0:
|
||||
avg = s['gmv']/s['orders']
|
||||
rr = s['ref_ords']/s['orders']*100
|
||||
x_vals.append(avg)
|
||||
y_vals.append(rr)
|
||||
s_vals.append(s['orders']*12)
|
||||
if x_vals:
|
||||
ax.scatter(x_vals, y_vals, s=s_vals, color=PALETTE[idx], alpha=0.7, edgecolors='white', linewidth=1.2, label=name)
|
||||
for x,y,si in zip(x_vals, y_vals, s_vals):
|
||||
ax.annotate(name[:3], (x,y), fontsize=6.5, ha='center', va='bottom', color=C_GRAY, alpha=0.7)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.axhline(y=40, color=C_RED, linestyle='--', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel('单均GMV (元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('退款率 (%)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_title('达人效率矩阵：单均GMV × 退款率\n(气泡=月订单量, 每点=一个月)', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(fontsize=7.5, loc='upper right', framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
ax.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# A6: 达人月度活跃度 (何时开播)
|
||||
ax = axesA[1, 2]
|
||||
# Binary heatmap - which months each influencer streamed
|
||||
active = np.zeros((len(top_inf), len(MONTH_ORDER)))
|
||||
for i, name in enumerate(top_inf):
|
||||
for j, m in enumerate(MONTH_ORDER):
|
||||
if inf_monthly[name][m]['orders'] > 0:
|
||||
active[i, j] = 1
|
||||
|
||||
ax.imshow(active, cmap='RdYlGn', aspect='auto', alpha=0.8)
|
||||
for i in range(len(top_inf)):
|
||||
for j in range(len(MONTH_ORDER)):
|
||||
if active[i,j] == 1:
|
||||
ax.text(j, i, '●', ha='center', va='center', fontsize=14, color='#065F46', fontweight='bold')
|
||||
else:
|
||||
ax.text(j, i, '—', ha='center', va='center', fontsize=10, color='#D1D5DB')
|
||||
|
||||
# Color background by month phase
|
||||
phase_colors = ['#FEF3C7','#FEF3C7','#FEF3C7','#FEF3C7','#DBEAFE','#DBEAFE','#FEE2E2','#FEE2E2','#D1FAE5']
|
||||
for j in range(len(MONTH_ORDER)):
|
||||
ax.axvspan(j-0.5, j+0.5, alpha=0.12, color=phase_colors[j], zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(MONTH_ORDER))); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(range(len(top_inf))); ax.set_yticklabels(top_inf, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('达人月度开播活跃度', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
|
||||
figA.suptitle('维度一：达人维度深度分析', fontsize=17, fontweight='bold', y=1.01, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(pad=3.5)
|
||||
outA = '/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_dim_people.png'
|
||||
figA.savefig(outA, dpi=180, bbox_inches='tight', facecolor=figA.get_facecolor())
|
||||
plt.close()
|
||||
print(f"✅ Figure A: {outA} ({os.path.getsize(outA)/1024:.0f} KB)")
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# FIGURE B: 月度维度深度分析 (2 rows × 3 cols)
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
figB, axesB = plt.subplots(2, 3, figsize=(22, 14))
|
||||
figB.patch.set_facecolor('#FAFBFC')
|
||||
|
||||
# Monthly totals computed from data
|
||||
m_totals = {}
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
m = parse_month(r['date'])
|
||||
if not m: continue
|
||||
if m not in m_totals:
|
||||
m_totals[m] = {'gmv':0,'gsv':0,'orders':0,'ref_ords':0,'ref_amt':0,'sessions':set()}
|
||||
m_totals[m]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
m_totals[m]['gsv'] += r['gsv']
|
||||
m_totals[m]['orders'] += r['orders']
|
||||
m_totals[m]['ref_ords'] += r['refund_orders']
|
||||
m_totals[m]['ref_amt'] += r['refund_amount']
|
||||
m_totals[m]['sessions'].add(r['date'])
|
||||
|
||||
# B1: 月度核心指标面板
|
||||
ax = axesB[0, 0]
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(MONTH_ORDER))
|
||||
|
||||
# GMV bar + GSV bar overlay
|
||||
gmv_arr = [m_totals[m]['gmv']/10000 if m in m_totals else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
gsv_arr = [m_totals[m]['gsv']/10000 if m in m_totals else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
refund_arr = np.array(gmv_arr) - np.array(gsv_arr)
|
||||
order_arr = [m_totals[m]['orders'] if m in m_totals else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
|
||||
bars_b1 = ax.bar(x, gsv_arr, color=C_GREEN, alpha=0.85, label='GSV', zorder=3)
|
||||
bars_b2 = ax.bar(x, refund_arr, bottom=gsv_arr, color=C_RED, alpha=0.5, label='退款', zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
for i in range(len(MONTH_ORDER)):
|
||||
if gmv_arr[i] > 0:
|
||||
ax.text(i, gmv_arr[i]+1, f'{gmv_arr[i]:.0f}万\n{order_arr[i]}单', ha='center', fontsize=8, fontweight='bold', color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度 GMV 构成 & 订单量', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('万元', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# B2: 月度退款率 + GSV率 双轴
|
||||
ax = axesB[0, 1]
|
||||
ax2 = ax.twinx()
|
||||
ref_rates = [(m_totals[m]['ref_ords']/m_totals[m]['orders']*100) if m in m_totals and m_totals[m]['orders']>0 else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
gsv_rates = [(m_totals[m]['gsv']/m_totals[m]['gmv']*100) if m in m_totals and m_totals[m]['gmv']>0 else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
|
||||
ax.bar(x, ref_rates, 0.5, color=C_RED, alpha=0.25, zorder=2)
|
||||
ax.plot(x, ref_rates, 'o-', color=C_RED, linewidth=2.5, markersize=9, zorder=4)
|
||||
ax2.plot(x, gsv_rates, 's--', color=C_GREEN, linewidth=2.5, markersize=9, zorder=4)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (r, g) in enumerate(zip(ref_rates, gsv_rates)):
|
||||
if r > 0:
|
||||
ax.annotate(f'{r:.0f}%', (i, r), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,12), ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color=C_RED)
|
||||
if g > 0:
|
||||
ax2.annotate(f'{g:.0f}%', (i, g), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,-16), ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color=C_GREEN)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度退款率 & GSV率 (净收入率)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('退款率 (%)', color=C_RED, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax2.set_ylabel('GSV率 (%)', color=C_GREEN, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_RED)
|
||||
ax2.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_GREEN)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 80); ax2.set_ylim(0, 100)
|
||||
|
||||
# B3: 月度场次 vs 场均GMV vs 场均单量
|
||||
ax = axesB[0, 2]
|
||||
sessions_arr = [len(m_totals[m]['sessions']) if m in m_totals else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
avg_gmv_session = [m_totals[m]['gmv']/len(m_totals[m]['sessions'])/10000 if m in m_totals and len(m_totals[m]['sessions'])>0 else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
avg_orders_session = [m_totals[m]['orders']/len(m_totals[m]['sessions']) if m in m_totals and len(m_totals[m]['sessions'])>0 else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
|
||||
ax3_twin = ax.twinx()
|
||||
bars_b3 = ax.bar(x, sessions_arr, 0.5, color=C_PURPLE, alpha=0.3, label='直播场次', zorder=2)
|
||||
ax.plot(x, avg_gmv_session, 'D-', color=C_BLUE, linewidth=2.5, markersize=10, zorder=4, label='场均GMV(万)')
|
||||
ax3_twin.plot(x, avg_orders_session, '^--', color=C_ORANGE, linewidth=2, markersize=9, zorder=4, label='场均单量')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (s, a, o) in enumerate(zip(sessions_arr, avg_gmv_session, avg_orders_session)):
|
||||
if s > 0:
|
||||
ax.text(i-0.25, s+0.3, str(s), fontsize=9, color=C_PURPLE, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax.annotate(f'¥{a:.0f}万', (i, a), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,12), ha='center', fontsize=8.5, color=C_BLUE, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax3_twin.annotate(f'{o:.0f}单', (i, o), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,-16), ha='center', fontsize=8.5, color=C_ORANGE, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度场次 & 场均效率', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('场次', color=C_PURPLE, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax3_twin.set_ylabel('场均单量', color=C_ORANGE, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_PURPLE)
|
||||
ax3_twin.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_ORANGE)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# Handle combined legend
|
||||
l1, l1a = ax.get_legend_handles_labels()
|
||||
l2, l2a = ax3_twin.get_legend_handles_labels()
|
||||
ax.legend(l1+l2, l1a+l2a, loc='upper left', fontsize=7.5)
|
||||
|
||||
# B4: 月度平台GMV分布 (堆叠柱状)
|
||||
ax = axesB[1, 0]
|
||||
plat_order = ['小红书','三开','抖音+视频号','视频号','抖音','分销','微信小店','公众号','万物','社群']
|
||||
stack_bottom = np.zeros(len(MONTH_ORDER))
|
||||
for pidx, p in enumerate(plat_order):
|
||||
vals = [plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv']/10000 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
if sum(vals) > 0:
|
||||
ax.bar(x, vals, bottom=stack_bottom, color=PALETTE[pidx % len(PALETTE)], alpha=0.85, label=p, zorder=3)
|
||||
stack_bottom += np.array(vals)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度平台 GMV 分布', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=8, ncol=2, framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# B5: 月度新老达人对比 (首月开播 vs 复播)
|
||||
ax = axesB[1, 1]
|
||||
first_appear = {}
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
n = r['norm_name']; m = parse_month(r['date'])
|
||||
if m and (n not in first_appear or m < first_appear[n]):
|
||||
first_appear[n] = m
|
||||
|
||||
new_count = defaultdict(int); old_count = defaultdict(int)
|
||||
new_gmv = defaultdict(float); old_gmv = defaultdict(float)
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
n = r['norm_name']; m = parse_month(r['date'])
|
||||
if not m: continue
|
||||
if first_appear.get(n) == m:
|
||||
new_count[m] += 1; new_gmv[m] += r['gmv']/10000
|
||||
else:
|
||||
old_count[m] += 1; old_gmv[m] += r['gmv']/10000
|
||||
|
||||
new_arr = [new_gmv[m] for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
old_arr = [old_gmv[m] for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
|
||||
ax.bar(x, old_arr, color=C_BLUE, alpha=0.85, label='复播达人', zorder=3)
|
||||
ax.bar(x, new_arr, bottom=old_arr, color=C_GOLD, alpha=0.85, label='新达人', zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
for i in range(len(MONTH_ORDER)):
|
||||
if new_arr[i]+old_arr[i] > 0:
|
||||
ax.text(i, new_arr[i]+old_arr[i]+3, f'新{new_count[MONTH_ORDER[i]]}\n复{old_count[MONTH_ORDER[i]]}',
|
||||
ha='center', fontsize=7.5, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度新老达人 GMV 贡献\n(按首月开播分类)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# B6: 月度GMV增长率 & 环比变化
|
||||
ax = axesB[1, 2] # B6 (last subplot in 2x3 grid)
|
||||
m_gmv_arr = [m_totals[m]['gmv']/10000 if m in m_totals else 0 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
mom_growth = []
|
||||
for i, g in enumerate(m_gmv_arr):
|
||||
if i == 0: mom_growth.append(0)
|
||||
else: mom_growth.append((g-m_gmv_arr[i-1])/m_gmv_arr[i-1]*100 if m_gmv_arr[i-1]>0 else 0)
|
||||
|
||||
growth_colors = [C_GREEN if v>=0 else C_RED for v in mom_growth]
|
||||
ax.bar(x, mom_growth, color=growth_colors, alpha=0.7, zorder=3)
|
||||
ax.plot(x, m_gmv_arr, 'D-', color=C_DARK, linewidth=2, markersize=10, markerfacecolor=C_GOLD, zorder=4)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (g, gm) in enumerate(zip(mom_growth, m_gmv_arr)):
|
||||
if i > 0:
|
||||
label = f'{g:+.0f}%'
|
||||
else: label = '—'
|
||||
ax.text(i, mom_growth[i]+(8 if mom_growth[i]>=0 else -12), label, ha='center', fontsize=8, fontweight='bold', color=C_DARK)
|
||||
ax.text(i, gm+3, f'{gm:.0f}万', ha='center', fontsize=8, color=C_BLUE, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax.axhline(y=0, color=C_DARK, linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.5)
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('月度 GMV 环比增长率', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('环比增长 (%)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
figB.suptitle('维度二：月度维度深度分析', fontsize=17, fontweight='bold', y=1.01, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(pad=3.5)
|
||||
outB = '/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_dim_month.png'
|
||||
figB.savefig(outB, dpi=180, bbox_inches='tight', facecolor=figB.get_facecolor())
|
||||
plt.close()
|
||||
print(f"✅ Figure B: {outB} ({os.path.getsize(outB)/1024:.0f} KB)")
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# FIGURE C: 平台维度深度分析 (2 rows × 3 cols)
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
figC, axesC = plt.subplots(2, 3, figsize=(22, 14))
|
||||
figC.patch.set_facecolor('#FAFBFC')
|
||||
|
||||
# Filter platforms with meaningful data
|
||||
meaningful_plats = [p for p in plat_order if sum(plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv'] for m in MONTH_ORDER) > 50000]
|
||||
|
||||
# C1: 平台 GMV 占比饼图
|
||||
ax = axesC[0, 0]
|
||||
plat_pie_gmv = [sum(plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv'] for m in MONTH_ORDER)/10000 for p in meaningful_plats]
|
||||
wedges, texts, autotexts = ax.pie(plat_pie_gmv, labels=meaningful_plats, autopct='%1.1f%%',
|
||||
colors=PALETTE[:len(meaningful_plats)], startangle=90, pctdistance=0.82,
|
||||
textprops={'fontsize':8.5})
|
||||
for at in autotexts: at.set_fontweight('bold'); at.set_fontsize(8)
|
||||
ax.set_title('平台 GMV 占比', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
|
||||
# C2: 平台退款率对比 (柱状+标注)
|
||||
ax = axesC[1, 0]
|
||||
plat_ref = []
|
||||
for p in meaningful_plats:
|
||||
total_o = sum(plat_monthly[p][m]['orders'] for m in MONTH_ORDER)
|
||||
total_r = sum(plat_monthly[p][m]['ref_ords'] for m in MONTH_ORDER)
|
||||
plat_ref.append({'name':p, 'orders':total_o, 'ref_rate':total_r/total_o*100 if total_o>0 else 0,
|
||||
'gmv':sum(plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv'] for m in MONTH_ORDER)/10000})
|
||||
|
||||
plat_ref.sort(key=lambda x:x['ref_rate'])
|
||||
names_r = [x['name'] for x in plat_ref]
|
||||
rates_r = [x['ref_rate'] for x in plat_ref]
|
||||
gmv_r = [x['gmv'] for x in plat_ref]
|
||||
rate_colors = [C_GREEN if r<25 else C_GOLD if r<40 else C_RED for r in rates_r]
|
||||
bars_c2 = ax.barh(range(len(names_r)), rates_r, color=rate_colors, height=0.6, zorder=3)
|
||||
for bar, r, g in zip(bars_c2, rates_r, gmv_r):
|
||||
ax.text(bar.get_width()+1, bar.get_y()+bar.get_height()/2,
|
||||
f'{r:.1f}% | GMV ¥{g:.0f}万', va='center', fontsize=8.5, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
ax.axvline(x=40, color=C_RED, linestyle='--', alpha=0.3, linewidth=1)
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(range(len(names_r))); ax.set_yticklabels(names_r, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('平台退款率对比\n(按退款率升序)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel('退款率 (%)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# C3: 平台达人来源多样性
|
||||
ax = axesC[0, 1]
|
||||
# How many unique influencers per platform
|
||||
plat_inf = defaultdict(set)
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
p = merge_platform(r['platform'])
|
||||
plat_inf[p].add(r['norm_name'])
|
||||
|
||||
plat_div = [(p, len(inf_set), sum(plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv'] for m in MONTH_ORDER)/10000)
|
||||
for p, inf_set in plat_inf.items() if p in meaningful_plats]
|
||||
plat_div.sort(key=lambda x:x[1], reverse=True)
|
||||
|
||||
names_d = [x[0] for x in plat_div]
|
||||
divers = [x[1] for x in plat_div]
|
||||
gmv_d = [x[2] for x in plat_div]
|
||||
|
||||
ax_twin = ax.twinx()
|
||||
bars_d = ax.bar(range(len(names_d)), divers, color=C_PURPLE, alpha=0.7, label='合作达人数', zorder=3)
|
||||
ax_twin.plot(range(len(names_d)), gmv_d, 'D-', color=C_BLUE, linewidth=2.5, markersize=10, zorder=4, label='GMV(万)')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (d, g) in enumerate(zip(divers, gmv_d)):
|
||||
ax.text(i, d+0.3, str(d), ha='center', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold', color=C_PURPLE)
|
||||
ax_twin.annotate(f'¥{g:.0f}万', (i, g), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,12), ha='center', fontsize=8.5, color=C_BLUE, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(names_d))); ax.set_xticklabels(names_d, fontsize=8.5, rotation=20)
|
||||
ax.set_title('平台达人多样性\n(达人数 vs GMV)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('合作达人数', color=C_PURPLE, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax_twin.set_ylabel('GMV (万元)', color=C_BLUE, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_PURPLE)
|
||||
ax_twin.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_BLUE)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
l1,l1a = ax.get_legend_handles_labels(); l2,l2a = ax_twin.get_legend_handles_labels()
|
||||
ax.legend(l1+l2, l1a+l2a, loc='upper right', fontsize=7.5)
|
||||
|
||||
# C4: 头部平台月度趋势
|
||||
ax = axesC[0, 2]
|
||||
top_4_plats = [x[0] for x in plat_div[:4]]
|
||||
for idx, p in enumerate(top_4_plats):
|
||||
vals = [plat_monthly[p][m]['gmv']/10000 for m in MONTH_ORDER]
|
||||
ax.plot(range(len(MONTH_ORDER)), vals, 'o-', color=PALETTE[idx], linewidth=2.5, markersize=9,
|
||||
markerfacecolor='white', markeredgewidth=2, label=p)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(MONTH_ORDER))); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('TOP4 平台月度 GMV 趋势', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.legend(fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
ax.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# C5: 平台退款率月度热力图
|
||||
ax = axesC[1, 1]
|
||||
heat_plat = np.zeros((len(meaningful_plats), len(MONTH_ORDER)))
|
||||
for i, p in enumerate(meaningful_plats):
|
||||
for j, m in enumerate(MONTH_ORDER):
|
||||
s = plat_monthly[p][m]
|
||||
heat_plat[i, j] = (s['ref_ords']/s['orders']*100) if s['orders']>0 else np.nan
|
||||
|
||||
masked_p = np.ma.masked_invalid(heat_plat)
|
||||
im = ax.imshow(masked_p, cmap='RdYlGn_r', aspect='auto', vmin=0, vmax=80)
|
||||
for i in range(len(meaningful_plats)):
|
||||
for j in range(len(MONTH_ORDER)):
|
||||
v = heat_plat[i, j]
|
||||
if not np.isnan(v):
|
||||
col = 'white' if v > 45 else C_DARK
|
||||
ax.text(j, i, f'{v:.0f}%', ha='center', va='center', fontsize=8.5, fontweight='bold', color=col)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(range(len(MONTH_ORDER))); ax.set_xticklabels(MONTH_LABELS, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(range(len(meaningful_plats))); ax.set_yticklabels(meaningful_plats, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('平台退款率月份热力图', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
plt.colorbar(im, ax=ax, shrink=0.8, pad=0.02).set_label('退款率 (%)', fontsize=9)
|
||||
|
||||
# C6: 平台场均效率 & 稳定性
|
||||
ax = axesC[1, 2]
|
||||
# Per-platform per-session avg GMV and stddev
|
||||
plat_session_stats = defaultdict(list)
|
||||
for r in data:
|
||||
p = merge_platform(r['platform'])
|
||||
plat_session_stats[p].append(r['gmv']/10000)
|
||||
|
||||
plat_eff = []
|
||||
for p in meaningful_plats:
|
||||
vals = plat_session_stats[p]
|
||||
if vals:
|
||||
plat_eff.append({'name': p, 'avg': np.mean(vals), 'std': np.std(vals), 'count': len(vals)})
|
||||
|
||||
plat_eff.sort(key=lambda x:x['avg'], reverse=True)
|
||||
eff_names = [x['name'] for x in plat_eff]
|
||||
eff_avg = [x['avg'] for x in plat_eff]
|
||||
eff_std = [x['std'] for x in plat_eff]
|
||||
|
||||
y_pos = np.arange(len(eff_names))
|
||||
bars_c6 = ax.barh(y_pos, eff_avg, xerr=eff_std, color=C_BLUE, alpha=0.75, height=0.6,
|
||||
ecolor=C_DARK, capsize=4, zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
for bar, avg, std, cnt in zip(bars_c6, eff_avg, eff_std, [x['count'] for x in plat_eff]):
|
||||
cv = std/avg*100 if avg>0 else 0
|
||||
ax.text(bar.get_width()+0.3, bar.get_y()+bar.get_height()/2,
|
||||
f'场均 ¥{avg:.1f}万 ±{std:.1f}万 (CV:{cv:.0f}%)',
|
||||
va='center', fontsize=8, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(y_pos); ax.set_yticklabels(eff_names, fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax.set_title('平台场均 GMV & 稳定性\n(误差线=标准差)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel('场均 GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
figC.suptitle('维度三：平台/渠道维度深度分析', fontsize=17, fontweight='bold', y=1.01, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(pad=3.5)
|
||||
outC = '/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_dim_platform.png'
|
||||
figC.savefig(outC, dpi=180, bbox_inches='tight', facecolor=figC.get_facecolor())
|
||||
plt.close()
|
||||
print(f"✅ Figure C: {outC} ({os.path.getsize(outC)/1024:.0f} KB)")
|
||||
|
||||
print("\n🎉 All 3 dimensional analysis charts generated!")
|
||||
483
scripts/daren_report_chart.py
Normal file
483
scripts/daren_report_chart.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,483 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""达播业务可视化图表生成"""
|
||||
import openpyxl
|
||||
import glob
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib
|
||||
matplotlib.use('Agg')
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
|
||||
from matplotlib.patches import FancyBboxPatch
|
||||
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
||||
from collections import defaultdict
|
||||
import os
|
||||
|
||||
# ============ Chinese font setup ============
|
||||
plt.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'WenQuanYi Zen Hei', 'Noto Sans CJK SC', 'SimHei', 'DejaVu Sans']
|
||||
plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
|
||||
|
||||
# ============ Color palette ============
|
||||
C_PRIME = '#2563EB' # 主色
|
||||
C_ACCENT = '#F59E0B' # 强调
|
||||
C_DANGER = '#EF4444' # 危险/退款
|
||||
C_SUCCESS = '#10B981' # 健康
|
||||
C_PURPLE = '#8B5CF6'
|
||||
C_TEAL = '#14B8A6'
|
||||
C_PINK = '#EC4899'
|
||||
C_GRAY = '#6B7280'
|
||||
C_LIGHT = '#F3F4F6'
|
||||
C_DARK = '#1F2937'
|
||||
|
||||
PALETTE = ['#2563EB','#F59E0B','#EF4444','#8B5CF6','#10B981','#EC4899','#14B8A6','#F97316','#6366F1','#84CC16']
|
||||
|
||||
# ============ Data loading ============
|
||||
files = glob.glob('/root/.openclaw/media/inbound/*3403f15a*')
|
||||
wb = openpyxl.load_workbook(files[0])
|
||||
ws = wb['Sheet1']
|
||||
|
||||
def excel_date_to_str(val):
|
||||
if val is None: return None
|
||||
if isinstance(val, datetime): return val.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
|
||||
if isinstance(val, str): return val
|
||||
if isinstance(val, (int, float)):
|
||||
try:
|
||||
return (datetime(1899,12,30)+timedelta(days=int(val))).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
|
||||
except: return str(val)
|
||||
return str(val)
|
||||
|
||||
all_data = []
|
||||
for row in ws.iter_rows(min_row=2, max_row=ws.max_row, values_only=True):
|
||||
name = str(row[0]).strip() if row[0] else ''
|
||||
if '合计' in name or '总计' in name:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
orders = row[3]
|
||||
if orders is None:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
all_data.append({
|
||||
'name': name,
|
||||
'date': excel_date_to_str(row[1]),
|
||||
'platform': str(row[2]).strip() if row[2] else '',
|
||||
'orders': orders,
|
||||
'gmv': row[4] or 0,
|
||||
'refund_orders': row[5] or 0,
|
||||
'refund_amount': row[6] or 0,
|
||||
'gsv': row[10] or 0,
|
||||
})
|
||||
|
||||
# Name normalization
|
||||
name_map = {
|
||||
'晚柠也是个妈妈了':'晚柠','晚柠':'晚柠',
|
||||
'念妈讲学习规划':'念妈','念妈':'念妈',
|
||||
'学霸三人行':'学霸三人行','学霸老王':'学霸老王',
|
||||
'开心妈妈学习宝藏':'开心妈妈','开心爸育儿':'开心爸',
|
||||
'小花生网':'小花生网','小花生':'小花生网',
|
||||
'盈姐':'盈姐','百克力':'百克力','亮爸':'亮爸',
|
||||
'万物分销':'万物分销','万物内购':'万物分销','万物团购':'万物分销',
|
||||
'小小鹰萱妈':'小小鹰萱妈','老狼聊育儿':'老狼聊育儿',
|
||||
'海淀妈妈优选':'海淀妈妈优选','神奇瓜妈聊成长':'神奇瓜妈',
|
||||
'宣儿妈妈':'宣儿妈妈','宣儿麻麻':'宣儿妈妈',
|
||||
'四个娃的组合生活':'四个娃的组合生活','肆个葫芦娃的妈':'四个娃的组合生活',
|
||||
'小暖阿姨慢一点':'小暖阿姨',
|
||||
}
|
||||
for r in all_data:
|
||||
r['norm_name'] = name_map.get(r['name'], r['name'])
|
||||
|
||||
# Monthly summary data (from the spreadsheet summary rows)
|
||||
monthly = [
|
||||
('2025-09', 382, 763618, 197, 393803, 369615, 2),
|
||||
('2025-10', 390, 779610, 156, 311844, 466116, 6),
|
||||
('2025-11', 222, 443778, 105, 209895, 232683, 4),
|
||||
('2025-12', 190, 327241, 44, 74976, 251365, 4),
|
||||
('2026-01', 154, 305250, 40, 79311, 224939, 10),
|
||||
('2026-02', 239, 477761, 161, 321839, 143927.5, 1),
|
||||
('2026-03', 838, 2703044, 254, 831703, 1695826, 11),
|
||||
('2026-04', 1480, 4645465, 679, 2110850, 2507226.5, 23),
|
||||
('2026-05', 492, 1616312, 150, 485334, 1130978, 15),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
months = [m[0] for m in monthly]
|
||||
month_labels = ['9月','10月','11月','12月','1月','2月','3月','4月','5月']
|
||||
m_orders = [m[1] for m in monthly]
|
||||
m_gmv = [m[2] for m in monthly]
|
||||
m_gsv = [m[4] for m in monthly]
|
||||
m_refund_amt = [m[5] for m in monthly]
|
||||
m_refund_rate = [(m[3]/m[1]*100) if m[1]>0 else 0 for m in monthly]
|
||||
m_sessions = [m[6] for m in monthly]
|
||||
|
||||
# Influencer aggregate
|
||||
inf = defaultdict(lambda:{'gmv':0,'gsv':0,'orders':0,'ref_ords':0})
|
||||
for r in all_data:
|
||||
n = r['norm_name']
|
||||
inf[n]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
inf[n]['gsv'] += r['gsv']
|
||||
inf[n]['orders'] += r['orders']
|
||||
inf[n]['ref_ords'] += r['refund_orders']
|
||||
|
||||
inf_sorted = sorted(inf.items(), key=lambda x:x[1]['gmv'], reverse=True)
|
||||
top10 = inf_sorted[:10]
|
||||
top_names = [x[0] for x in top10]
|
||||
top_gmv = [x[1]['gmv']/10000 for x in top10]
|
||||
top_gsv = [x[1]['gsv']/10000 for x in top10]
|
||||
top_ref_rate = [(x[1]['ref_ords']/x[1]['orders']*100) if x[1]['orders']>0 else 0 for x in top10]
|
||||
|
||||
# Platform aggregate
|
||||
plat = defaultdict(lambda:{'gmv':0,'gsv':0,'orders':0,'ref_ords':0})
|
||||
for r in all_data:
|
||||
p = r['platform'] if r['platform'] else '未标注'
|
||||
plat[p]['gmv'] += r['gmv']
|
||||
plat[p]['gsv'] += r['gsv']
|
||||
plat[p]['orders'] += r['orders']
|
||||
plat[p]['ref_ords'] += r['refund_orders']
|
||||
|
||||
# Merge similar platforms
|
||||
plat_merged = defaultdict(lambda:{'gmv':0,'gsv':0,'orders':0,'ref_ords':0})
|
||||
merge_map = {
|
||||
'三开':'三开','小红书':'小红书','小红书-混场':'小红书',
|
||||
'抖音+视频号':'抖音+视频号','抖音&视频号':'抖音+视频号',
|
||||
'视频号、抖音':'抖音+视频号','视频号+抖音':'抖音+视频号','视频号1+抖音':'抖音+视频号',
|
||||
'视频号':'视频号','视频号2':'视频号','视频号+小红书':'视频号+小红书',
|
||||
'视频号+小红书+抖音':'三开（全平台）','抖音、视频号、小红书':'三开（全平台）',
|
||||
'抖音':'抖音','抖音+微信小店':'抖音',
|
||||
'微信小店':'微信小店','公众号':'公众号','社群':'社群',
|
||||
'分销-内购':'分销','分销-开团':'分销','分销-团购下架':'分销',
|
||||
'万物':'万物',
|
||||
}
|
||||
for p, s in plat.items():
|
||||
mp = merge_map.get(p, p)
|
||||
plat_merged[mp]['gmv'] += s['gmv']
|
||||
plat_merged[mp]['gsv'] += s['gsv']
|
||||
plat_merged[mp]['orders'] += s['orders']
|
||||
plat_merged[mp]['ref_ords'] += s['ref_ords']
|
||||
|
||||
plat_sorted = sorted(plat_merged.items(), key=lambda x:x[1]['gmv'], reverse=True)
|
||||
plat_names = [x[0] for x in plat_sorted]
|
||||
plat_gmv = [x[1]['gmv']/10000 for x in plat_sorted]
|
||||
plat_ref_rate = [(x[1]['ref_ords']/x[1]['orders']*100) if x[1]['orders']>0 else 0 for x in plat_sorted]
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================
|
||||
# FIGURE 1: 月度趋势 —— GMV/GSV + 退款率
|
||||
# ============================================
|
||||
fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 3, figsize=(20, 12))
|
||||
fig.patch.set_facecolor('#FAFBFC')
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 1: GMV & GSV Trend
|
||||
ax1 = axes[0, 0]
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(months))
|
||||
bars = ax1.bar(x - 0.15, np.array(m_gmv)/10000, 0.3, color=C_PRIME, alpha=0.85, label='GMV (万元)', zorder=3)
|
||||
bars2 = ax1.bar(x + 0.15, np.array(m_gsv)/10000, 0.3, color=C_SUCCESS, alpha=0.85, label='GSV (万元)', zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
# Add value labels
|
||||
for bar, val in zip(bars, m_gmv):
|
||||
ax1.text(bar.get_x()+bar.get_width()/2, bar.get_height()+0.5, f'{val/10000:.1f}',
|
||||
ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=7.5, fontweight='bold', color=C_PRIME)
|
||||
for bar, val in zip(bars2, m_gsv):
|
||||
ax1.text(bar.get_x()+bar.get_width()/2, bar.get_height()+0.5, f'{val/10000:.1f}',
|
||||
ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=7.5, fontweight='bold', color=C_SUCCESS)
|
||||
|
||||
ax1.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax1.set_xticklabels(month_labels, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax1.set_title('月度 GMV & GSV 趋势', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax1.set_ylabel('万元', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax1.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
ax1.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
ax1.set_ylim(0, max(m_gmv)/10000*1.2)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 2: Refund Rate + Sessions
|
||||
ax2 = axes[0, 1]
|
||||
ax2_twin = ax2.twinx()
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(months))
|
||||
line1 = ax2.plot(x, m_refund_rate, 'o-', color=C_DANGER, linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, zorder=4, label='退款率(%)')
|
||||
bars3 = ax2_twin.bar(x, m_sessions, 0.5, color=C_PURPLE, alpha=0.25, zorder=2, label='直播场次')
|
||||
|
||||
# Mark danger zone
|
||||
ax2.axhline(y=40, color=C_DANGER, linestyle='--', alpha=0.4, linewidth=1)
|
||||
ax2.text(len(months)-0.5, 41, '40%警戒线', fontsize=8, color=C_DANGER, alpha=0.7)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (r, s) in enumerate(zip(m_refund_rate, m_sessions)):
|
||||
ax2.annotate(f'{r:.1f}%', (i, r), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,12),
|
||||
ha='center', fontsize=8.5, fontweight='bold', color=C_DANGER)
|
||||
|
||||
ax2.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax2.set_xticklabels(month_labels, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax2.set_title('月度退款率 & 直播场次', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax2.set_ylabel('退款率 (%)', fontsize=10, color=C_DANGER)
|
||||
ax2_twin.set_ylabel('场次', fontsize=10, color=C_PURPLE)
|
||||
ax2.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_DANGER)
|
||||
ax2_twin.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_PURPLE)
|
||||
ax2.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
ax2.set_ylim(0, 80)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 3: Monthly Refund Amount Breakdown (stacked bar)
|
||||
ax3 = axes[0, 2]
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(months))
|
||||
gmv_arr = np.array(m_gmv)/10000
|
||||
gsv_arr = np.array(m_gsv)/10000
|
||||
refund_arr = gmv_arr - gsv_arr
|
||||
|
||||
ax3.bar(x, gsv_arr, color=C_SUCCESS, alpha=0.85, label='GSV 实收', zorder=3)
|
||||
ax3.bar(x, refund_arr, bottom=gsv_arr, color=C_DANGER, alpha=0.6, label='退款金额', zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
for i in range(len(months)):
|
||||
total = gmv_arr[i]
|
||||
net = gsv_arr[i]
|
||||
rate = (total-net)/total*100 if total>0 else 0
|
||||
ax3.text(i, total+1, f'{total:.1f}万', ha='center', fontsize=8, fontweight='bold', color=C_DARK)
|
||||
ax3.text(i, net/2, f'{net/total*100:.0f}%', ha='center', fontsize=7.5, color='white', fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax3.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax3.set_xticklabels(month_labels, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax3.set_title('GMV 构成：实收 vs 退款', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax3.set_ylabel('万元', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax3.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=9)
|
||||
ax3.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 4: TOP10 Influencer GMV
|
||||
ax4 = axes[1, 0]
|
||||
y_pos = np.arange(len(top_names))
|
||||
colors_bar = [C_PRIME if i==0 else C_ACCENT if i==1 else '#94A3B8' for i in range(len(top_names))]
|
||||
|
||||
bars4 = ax4.barh(y_pos, top_gmv, color=colors_bar, height=0.65, zorder=3)
|
||||
for bar, val, gsv_val in zip(bars4, top_gmv, top_gsv):
|
||||
ax4.text(bar.get_width()+1, bar.get_y()+bar.get_height()/2,
|
||||
f'GMV ¥{val:.0f}万 | GSV ¥{gsv_val:.0f}万',
|
||||
va='center', fontsize=8, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax4.set_yticks(y_pos)
|
||||
ax4.set_yticklabels(top_names, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax4.set_title('达人 GMV 排行 TOP10', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax4.set_xlabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax4.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax4.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
ax4.set_xlim(0, max(top_gmv)*1.25)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 5: TOP10 Refund Rate Comparison
|
||||
ax5 = axes[1, 1]
|
||||
y_pos = np.arange(len(top_names))
|
||||
rate_colors = [C_SUCCESS if r < 30 else C_DANGER if r > 45 else C_ACCENT for r in top_ref_rate]
|
||||
bars5 = ax5.barh(y_pos, top_ref_rate, color=rate_colors, height=0.65, zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
for bar, val in zip(bars5, top_ref_rate):
|
||||
ax5.text(bar.get_width()+1, bar.get_y()+bar.get_height()/2, f'{val:.1f}%',
|
||||
va='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax5.axvline(x=40, color=C_DANGER, linestyle='--', alpha=0.4, linewidth=1.5)
|
||||
ax5.text(41, len(top_names)-0.5, '整体均值 40%', fontsize=8, color=C_DANGER, alpha=0.7)
|
||||
ax5.set_yticks(y_pos)
|
||||
ax5.set_yticklabels(top_names, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax5.set_title('达人退款率对比', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax5.set_xlabel('退款率 (%)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax5.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax5.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
ax5.set_xlim(0, max(top_ref_rate)*1.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 6: Platform GMV + refund rate
|
||||
ax6 = axes[1, 2]
|
||||
y_pos = np.arange(len(plat_names))
|
||||
plat_rate_colors = [C_SUCCESS if r < 30 else C_DANGER if r > 45 else C_ACCENT for r in plat_ref_rate]
|
||||
bars6 = ax6.barh(y_pos, plat_gmv, color=plat_rate_colors, height=0.65, alpha=0.85, zorder=3)
|
||||
|
||||
for bar, val, rate in zip(bars6, plat_gmv, plat_ref_rate):
|
||||
ax6.text(bar.get_width()+1, bar.get_y()+bar.get_height()/2,
|
||||
f'¥{val:.0f}万 (退率{rate:.0f}%)',
|
||||
va='center', fontsize=8, color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax6.set_yticks(y_pos)
|
||||
ax6.set_yticklabels(plat_names, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax6.set_title('平台/渠道 GMV 对比', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax6.set_xlabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax6.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
ax6.grid(axis='x', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
ax6.set_xlim(0, max(plat_gmv)*1.3)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.suptitle('瓦拉英语 · 达人直播业务全景分析 (2025.09 - 2026.05)', fontsize=18, fontweight='bold', y=1.01)
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(pad=3)
|
||||
|
||||
out_path = '/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_biz_charts.png'
|
||||
plt.savefig(out_path, dpi=180, bbox_inches='tight', facecolor=fig.get_facecolor(), edgecolor='none')
|
||||
plt.close()
|
||||
print(f"✅ Chart 1 saved: {out_path}")
|
||||
print(f" File size: {os.path.getsize(out_path)/1024:.0f} KB")
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================
|
||||
# FIGURE 2: 月度GMV瀑布图 & 达人月度贡献矩阵
|
||||
# ============================================
|
||||
fig2, axes2 = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(20, 8))
|
||||
fig2.patch.set_facecolor('#FAFBFC')
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 7: Monthly waterfall by influencer
|
||||
ax7 = axes2[0]
|
||||
# Get top5 influencers monthly data
|
||||
top5_names = [x[0] for x in inf_sorted[:5]]
|
||||
inf_monthly = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(float))
|
||||
for r in all_data:
|
||||
n = r['norm_name']
|
||||
if n not in top5_names:
|
||||
n = '其他达人'
|
||||
d = r['date']
|
||||
if d and len(d) >= 7:
|
||||
m = d[:7]
|
||||
# Map to correct month labels
|
||||
month_keys = {
|
||||
'2026-09':'2025-09','2026-10':'2025-10','2026-11':'2025-11','2026-12':'2025-12',
|
||||
'2026-01':'2026-01','2026-02':'2026-02','2026-03':'2026-03',
|
||||
'2026-04':'2026-04','2026-05':'2026-05',
|
||||
'2025-12':'2025-12'
|
||||
}
|
||||
m = month_keys.get(m, m)
|
||||
inf_monthly[m][n] += r['gmv']/10000
|
||||
|
||||
all_months_sorted = ['2025-09','2025-10','2025-11','2025-12','2026-01','2026-02','2026-03','2026-04','2026-05']
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(all_months_sorted))
|
||||
bottom = np.zeros(len(all_months_sorted))
|
||||
colors_stack = [C_PRIME, C_ACCENT, C_PURPLE, C_DANGER, C_TEAL, '#CBD5E1']
|
||||
|
||||
for idx, name in enumerate(top5_names + ['其他达人']):
|
||||
vals = [inf_monthly[m].get(name, 0) for m in all_months_sorted]
|
||||
ax7.bar(x, vals, bottom=bottom, color=colors_stack[idx], alpha=0.88, label=name, zorder=3)
|
||||
bottom += np.array(vals)
|
||||
|
||||
ax7.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax7.set_xticklabels(month_labels, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax7.set_title('月度 GMV 达人贡献拆解 (万元)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax7.set_ylabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax7.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=9, framealpha=0.95, ncol=2)
|
||||
ax7.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 8: Efficiency Matrix (bubble chart) - GMV vs Refund Rate, bubble size = orders
|
||||
ax8 = axes2[1]
|
||||
# Filter top 15 influencers for clarity
|
||||
top15 = inf_sorted[:15]
|
||||
for name, s in top15:
|
||||
rr = (s['ref_ords']/s['orders']*100) if s['orders']>0 else 0
|
||||
gmv_w = s['gmv']/10000
|
||||
order_sz = s['orders']
|
||||
color = C_SUCCESS if rr < 30 else C_DANGER if rr > 45 else C_ACCENT
|
||||
ax8.scatter(gmv_w, rr, s=order_sz*8, color=color, alpha=0.7, edgecolors='white', linewidth=1.5, zorder=4)
|
||||
ax8.annotate(name, (gmv_w, rr), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(8,5),
|
||||
fontsize=8.5, fontweight='bold', color=C_DARK)
|
||||
|
||||
ax8.axhline(y=40, color=C_DARK, linestyle='--', alpha=0.3, linewidth=1)
|
||||
ax8.set_xlabel('GMV (万元)', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax8.set_ylabel('退款率 (%)', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax8.set_title('达人效率矩阵 (气泡大小=订单量)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
|
||||
# Add quadrant labels
|
||||
x_max = ax8.get_xlim()[1]
|
||||
y_max = ax8.get_ylim()[1]
|
||||
ax8.text(x_max*0.75, 15, '★ 优质区\n高GMV 低退率', fontsize=9, color=C_SUCCESS, fontweight='bold', alpha=0.8)
|
||||
ax8.text(x_max*0.75, y_max*0.75, '风险区\n高GMV 高退率', fontsize=9, color=C_DANGER, fontweight='bold', alpha=0.8)
|
||||
ax8.grid(alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.suptitle('瓦拉英语 · 达人结构分析 & 效率评估', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', y=1.02)
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(pad=3)
|
||||
|
||||
out_path2 = '/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_biz_charts2.png'
|
||||
plt.savefig(out_path2, dpi=180, bbox_inches='tight', facecolor=fig2.get_facecolor(), edgecolor='none')
|
||||
plt.close()
|
||||
print(f"✅ Chart 2 saved: {out_path2}")
|
||||
print(f" File size: {os.path.getsize(out_path2)/1024:.0f} KB")
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================
|
||||
# FIGURE 3: 退款率热力图 & 月度场次+单均GMV
|
||||
# ============================================
|
||||
fig3, axes3 = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(20, 10))
|
||||
fig3.patch.set_facecolor('#FAFBFC')
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 9: Refund rate heatmap by month × top influencer
|
||||
ax9 = axes3[0]
|
||||
top_heat = top_names[:8] # Top 8 influencers
|
||||
months_heat = ['2025-09','2025-10','2025-11','2025-12','2026-01','2026-02','2026-03','2026-04','2026-05']
|
||||
month_labels_short = ['9月','10月','11月','12月','1月','2月','3月','4月','5月']
|
||||
|
||||
heatmap_data = np.zeros((len(top_heat), len(months_heat)))
|
||||
|
||||
inf_m_ref = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(lambda: {'orders':0,'ref_ords':0}))
|
||||
for r in all_data:
|
||||
n = r['norm_name']
|
||||
d = r['date']
|
||||
if d and len(d) >= 7:
|
||||
m = d[:7]
|
||||
month_keys2 = {'2026-09':'2025-09','2026-10':'2025-10','2026-11':'2025-11','2026-12':'2025-12'}
|
||||
m = month_keys2.get(m, m)
|
||||
inf_m_ref[n][m]['orders'] += r['orders']
|
||||
inf_m_ref[n][m]['ref_ords'] += r['refund_orders']
|
||||
|
||||
for i, name in enumerate(top_heat):
|
||||
for j, m in enumerate(months_heat):
|
||||
d = inf_m_ref[name][m]
|
||||
if d['orders'] > 0:
|
||||
heatmap_data[i, j] = d['ref_ords']/d['orders']*100
|
||||
else:
|
||||
heatmap_data[i, j] = np.nan
|
||||
|
||||
masked = np.ma.masked_invalid(heatmap_data)
|
||||
im = ax9.imshow(masked, cmap='RdYlGn_r', aspect='auto', vmin=10, vmax=75)
|
||||
|
||||
ax9.set_xticks(np.arange(len(months_heat)))
|
||||
ax9.set_xticklabels(month_labels_short, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax9.set_yticks(np.arange(len(top_heat)))
|
||||
ax9.set_yticklabels(top_heat, fontsize=10)
|
||||
|
||||
for i in range(len(top_heat)):
|
||||
for j in range(len(months_heat)):
|
||||
val = heatmap_data[i, j]
|
||||
if not np.isnan(val):
|
||||
color = 'white' if val > 45 else C_DARK
|
||||
ax9.text(j, i, f'{val:.0f}%', ha='center', va='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color=color)
|
||||
|
||||
cbar = plt.colorbar(im, ax=ax9, shrink=0.85, pad=0.02)
|
||||
cbar.set_label('退款率 (%)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax9.set_title('退款率月度热力图 (达人×月份)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
|
||||
# Chart 10: Sessions & avg GMV per order
|
||||
ax10 = axes3[1]
|
||||
ax10_twin = ax10.twinx()
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(months))
|
||||
|
||||
# avg GMV per order
|
||||
avg_gmv = [m_gmv[i]/m_orders[i] if m_orders[i]>0 else 0 for i in range(len(months))]
|
||||
|
||||
bars10 = ax10.bar(x - 0.18, m_sessions, 0.35, color=C_PURPLE, alpha=0.3, label='直播场次', zorder=3)
|
||||
line10 = ax10.plot(x, avg_gmv, 'D-', color=C_PRIME, linewidth=2.5, markersize=10, zorder=4, label='单均GMV(元)')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (s, a) in enumerate(zip(m_sessions, avg_gmv)):
|
||||
ax10.text(i-0.18, s+0.5, str(s), ha='center', fontsize=9, color=C_PURPLE, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
for i, a in enumerate(avg_gmv):
|
||||
ax10.annotate(f'¥{a:,.0f}', (i, a), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,12),
|
||||
ha='center', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold', color=C_PRIME)
|
||||
|
||||
# GSV rate
|
||||
gsv_rate = [m_gsv[i]/m_gmv[i]*100 if m_gmv[i]>0 else 0 for i in range(len(months))]
|
||||
ax10_twin.plot(x, gsv_rate, 's--', color=C_SUCCESS, linewidth=2, markersize=9, alpha=0.8, label='GSV率(%)')
|
||||
for i, r in enumerate(gsv_rate):
|
||||
ax10_twin.annotate(f'{r:.0f}%', (i, r), textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0,-16),
|
||||
ha='center', fontsize=8.5, color=C_SUCCESS, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax10.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax10.set_xticklabels(month_labels, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax10.set_title('月度运营效率：场次 & 单均GMV & 净收入率', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=12)
|
||||
ax10.set_ylabel('场次 / 单均GMV(元)', fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax10_twin.set_ylabel('GSV率 (%)', fontsize=10, color=C_SUCCESS)
|
||||
ax10_twin.tick_params(axis='y', colors=C_SUCCESS)
|
||||
ax10.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3, zorder=0)
|
||||
|
||||
# Combined legend
|
||||
lines1, labels1 = ax10.get_legend_handles_labels()
|
||||
lines2, labels2 = ax10_twin.get_legend_handles_labels()
|
||||
ax10.legend(lines1+lines2, labels1+labels2, loc='upper left', fontsize=9, framealpha=0.9)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.suptitle('瓦拉英语 · 退款率分布 & 运营效率趋势', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', y=1.02)
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(pad=3)
|
||||
|
||||
out_path3 = '/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/daren_biz_charts3.png'
|
||||
plt.savefig(out_path3, dpi=180, bbox_inches='tight', facecolor=fig3.get_facecolor(), edgecolor='none')
|
||||
plt.close()
|
||||
print(f"✅ Chart 3 saved: {out_path3}")
|
||||
print(f" File size: {os.path.getsize(out_path3)/1024:.0f} KB")
|
||||
|
||||
print("\n🎉 All charts generated successfully!")
|
||||
print(f"\nOutput files:")
|
||||
print(f" 1. {out_path}")
|
||||
print(f" 2. {out_path2}")
|
||||
print(f" 3. {out_path3}")
|
||||
419
scripts/device_category_analysis.py
Normal file
419
scripts/device_category_analysis.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,419 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""
|
||||
付费+周活用户的设备类型分布分析
|
||||
设备分类：手机 / 学习机 / 平板电脑 / 无设备记录
|
||||
"""
|
||||
import os
|
||||
import psycopg2
|
||||
|
||||
# Load secrets
|
||||
secrets = {}
|
||||
with open(os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), '..', 'secrets.env')) as f:
|
||||
for line in f:
|
||||
line = line.strip()
|
||||
if line and not line.startswith('#') and '=' in line:
|
||||
key, val = line.split('=', 1)
|
||||
val = val.strip("'").strip('"')
|
||||
secrets[key] = val
|
||||
|
||||
conn = psycopg2.connect(
|
||||
host="bj-postgres-16pob4sg.sql.tencentcdb.com",
|
||||
port=28591,
|
||||
user="ai_member",
|
||||
password=secrets['PG_ONLINE_PASSWORD'],
|
||||
database="vala_bi"
|
||||
)
|
||||
cur = conn.cursor()
|
||||
|
||||
end_date = '2026-05-26'
|
||||
start_date = '2026-05-19'
|
||||
print(f"周活窗口: {start_date} ~ {end_date}")
|
||||
|
||||
# Step 1: 付费用户
|
||||
print("\n=== Step 1: 付费用户 ===")
|
||||
cur.execute("""
|
||||
SELECT DISTINCT o.account_id
|
||||
FROM bi_vala_order o
|
||||
INNER JOIN bi_vala_app_account a ON o.account_id = a.id
|
||||
WHERE a.status = 1 AND a.deleted_at IS NULL
|
||||
AND o.order_status IN (3, 4)
|
||||
AND o.pay_success_date IS NOT NULL AND o.deleted_at IS NULL
|
||||
""")
|
||||
paid_users = {row[0] for row in cur.fetchall()}
|
||||
print(f"付费用户数: {len(paid_users)}")
|
||||
|
||||
# Step 2: 周活用户
|
||||
print("\n=== Step 2: 周活用户 ===")
|
||||
weekly_active_users = set()
|
||||
for i in range(8):
|
||||
cur.execute(f"""
|
||||
SELECT DISTINCT cpr.user_id
|
||||
FROM bi_user_chapter_play_record_{i} cpr
|
||||
WHERE cpr.play_status = 1
|
||||
AND cpr.created_at >= %s AND cpr.created_at < %s::date + interval '1 day'
|
||||
AND cpr.deleted_at IS NULL
|
||||
""", (start_date, end_date))
|
||||
for row in cur.fetchall():
|
||||
weekly_active_users.add(row[0])
|
||||
|
||||
print(" 获取角色->账号映射...")
|
||||
weekly_active_accounts = set()
|
||||
user_ids = list(weekly_active_users)
|
||||
batch_size = 1000
|
||||
for i in range(0, len(user_ids), batch_size):
|
||||
batch = user_ids[i:i+batch_size]
|
||||
placeholders = ','.join(['%s'] * len(batch))
|
||||
cur.execute(f"""
|
||||
SELECT DISTINCT c.account_id FROM bi_vala_app_character c
|
||||
WHERE c.id IN ({placeholders}) AND c.deleted_at IS NULL
|
||||
""", batch)
|
||||
for row in cur.fetchall():
|
||||
if row[0]:
|
||||
weekly_active_accounts.add(row[0])
|
||||
print(f"周活角色数: {len(weekly_active_users)}, account数: {len(weekly_active_accounts)}")
|
||||
|
||||
# Step 3: 交集
|
||||
target_accounts = paid_users & weekly_active_accounts
|
||||
print(f"\n=== 付费+周活交集: {len(target_accounts)} ===")
|
||||
|
||||
# Step 4: 设备信息
|
||||
print("\n=== Step 4: 设备信息 ===")
|
||||
target_ids = list(target_accounts)
|
||||
device_data = {}
|
||||
batch_size = 500
|
||||
for i in range(0, len(target_ids), batch_size):
|
||||
batch = target_ids[i:i+batch_size]
|
||||
placeholders = ','.join(['%s'] * len(batch))
|
||||
cur.execute(f"""
|
||||
SELECT DISTINCT ON (account_id) account_id, device, device_os
|
||||
FROM account_detail_info
|
||||
WHERE account_id IN ({placeholders}) AND device_os IS NOT NULL AND device_os != ''
|
||||
ORDER BY account_id, created_time DESC
|
||||
""", batch)
|
||||
for row in cur.fetchall():
|
||||
device_data[row[0]] = {'device': row[1], 'device_os': row[2]}
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"有设备记录: {len(device_data)}, 无设备记录: {len(target_accounts) - len(device_data)}")
|
||||
|
||||
# Step 5: 分类
|
||||
print("\n=== Step 5: 分类 ===")
|
||||
|
||||
def classify_device(device, device_os):
|
||||
d = (device or '').strip()
|
||||
dl = d.lower()
|
||||
os = (device_os or '').strip()
|
||||
|
||||
if os.startswith('iPad'):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
if os.startswith('iOS'):
|
||||
return '手机'
|
||||
|
||||
if os.startswith('Android'):
|
||||
# === 学习机品牌 ===
|
||||
lm_patterns = [
|
||||
'iflytek', 'xiaodu', 'seewo', 'eebbk',
|
||||
]
|
||||
for p in lm_patterns:
|
||||
if p in dl:
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# boe 京东方
|
||||
if dl.startswith('boe'):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# ZYB
|
||||
if dl.startswith('zyb'):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# 优学派
|
||||
if 'youxuepai' in dl:
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# 读书郎
|
||||
if 'readboy' in dl:
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# 乐乐课堂
|
||||
if 'leleketang' in dl:
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# alps / rockchip 平台学习机
|
||||
if dl.startswith('alps') or dl.startswith('rockchip'):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# 其他已知学习机品牌
|
||||
other_lm = ['cvte', 'jzx', 'cmdc', 'incar', 'tdtech', 'thtf', 'shuowang',
|
||||
'ptac', 'emdoor', 'hra', 'inspur', 'ktc', 'miaowang',
|
||||
'wancheng', 'ployer', 'robint', 'skyth',
|
||||
'a127cs', 'a127ch', 'a140', 'b127cs', 'b127ch',
|
||||
'elink', 'hht', 'huaruian', 'jhkj', 'knc', 'mfyd',
|
||||
'm66_pro', 'svision', 'xh-258', 'yfd', 'zyl',
|
||||
'conquest', 'ereneben', 'tianyi',
|
||||
'tablepc', 'aigo']
|
||||
for p in other_lm:
|
||||
if dl.startswith(p):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# UNISOC learning devices
|
||||
if dl.startswith('unisoc') and ('k-c22' in dl or 'p600' in dl or 't600' in dl or 'kimi' in dl):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# TCL learning devices
|
||||
if dl.startswith('tcl') and ('ycxy' in dl or 'zc30' in dl):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
# Generic Android device names
|
||||
if dl.startswith('android ') or dl.startswith('5g ') or dl.startswith('- ') or dl.startswith('unknown') or dl.startswith('v10') or dl.startswith('yt '):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
if dl.startswith('e3 ') or dl.startswith('e3_'):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
if dl.startswith('mid ') or dl.startswith('mid_'):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
if dl.startswith('tal ') or dl.startswith('tal_'):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
if dl.startswith('zte ') and ('w' in d.split()[-1].lower() if ' ' in d else True):
|
||||
return '学习机'
|
||||
|
||||
# === 平板电脑 ===
|
||||
# Huawei/Honor tablets (W model = WiFi)
|
||||
if (dl.startswith('huawei') or dl.startswith('honor')) and ('-w' in dl):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# Lenovo tablets
|
||||
if dl.startswith('lenovo') and 'tb' in dl:
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# Samsung tablets
|
||||
if dl.startswith('samsung') and ('sm-t' in dl or 'sm-x' in dl):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# Xiaomi Pad
|
||||
if dl.startswith('xiaomi') and ('pad' in dl or 'mi pad' in dl):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
if 'mi pad' in dl:
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# Alldocube tablets
|
||||
if 'iplay' in dl or 'alldocube' in dl:
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# Teclast tablets
|
||||
if dl.startswith('teclast'):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# Hisense tablets
|
||||
if 'familymobilepad' in dl:
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
if dl.startswith('hisense') and '32x8n' in dl:
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
# CUBE / Lecoo tablets
|
||||
if dl.startswith('cube') or dl.startswith('lecoo'):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
|
||||
# === 其余Android默认为手机 ===
|
||||
return '手机'
|
||||
|
||||
# 无OS信息，尝试从device名推断
|
||||
if dl.startswith('ipad'):
|
||||
return '平板电脑'
|
||||
return '手机'
|
||||
|
||||
# 分类统计
|
||||
categories = {'手机': 0, '学习机': 0, '平板电脑': 0, '无设备记录': 0}
|
||||
cat_users = {'手机': set(), '学习机': set(), '平板电脑': set(), '无设备记录': set()}
|
||||
|
||||
for aid in target_accounts:
|
||||
if aid in device_data:
|
||||
cat = classify_device(device_data[aid]['device'], device_data[aid]['device_os'])
|
||||
else:
|
||||
cat = '无设备记录'
|
||||
categories[cat] += 1
|
||||
cat_users[cat].add(aid)
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"\n{'='*60}")
|
||||
print(f"📱 付费+周活用户设备分布（近7天: {start_date}~{end_date}）")
|
||||
print(f"{'='*60}")
|
||||
print(f"总用户数: {len(target_accounts)}")
|
||||
print()
|
||||
for cat in ['手机', '学习机', '平板电脑', '无设备记录']:
|
||||
pct = categories[cat] / len(target_accounts) * 100
|
||||
print(f" {cat}: {categories[cat]} 人 ({pct:.1f}%)")
|
||||
|
||||
has_device = categories['手机'] + categories['学习机'] + categories['平板电脑']
|
||||
print(f"\n--- 仅看有设备记录的 {has_device} 人 ---")
|
||||
for cat in ['手机', '学习机', '平板电脑']:
|
||||
pct = categories[cat] / has_device * 100
|
||||
print(f" {cat}: {categories[cat]} 人 ({pct:.1f}%)")
|
||||
|
||||
# === 详细拆分 ===
|
||||
print(f"\n{'='*60}")
|
||||
print(f"📱 设备子分类详细分布")
|
||||
print(f"{'='*60}")
|
||||
|
||||
brand_stats = {}
|
||||
for aid in target_accounts:
|
||||
if aid in device_data:
|
||||
d = device_data[aid]
|
||||
os_name = (d['device_os'] or '').strip()
|
||||
dev_name = (d['device'] or 'unknown').strip()
|
||||
dl = dev_name.lower()
|
||||
|
||||
if os_name.startswith('iOS'):
|
||||
brand = 'iPhone'
|
||||
elif os_name.startswith('iPad'):
|
||||
brand = 'iPad'
|
||||
elif 'iflytek' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '讯飞(iFLYTEK)'
|
||||
elif 'xiaodu' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '小度'
|
||||
elif 'seewo' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '希沃'
|
||||
elif 'eebbk' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '步步高'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('boe'):
|
||||
brand = '京东方'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('zyb'):
|
||||
brand = 'ZYB'
|
||||
elif 'youxuepai' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '优学派'
|
||||
elif 'readboy' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '读书郎'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('alps'):
|
||||
brand = 'alps(MTK)'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('rockchip'):
|
||||
brand = 'rockchip(RK)'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('huawei'):
|
||||
brand = '华为'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('honor'):
|
||||
brand = '荣耀'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('xiaomi'):
|
||||
brand = '小米'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('vivo'):
|
||||
brand = 'vivo'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('oppo'):
|
||||
brand = 'OPPO'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('oneplus'):
|
||||
brand = '一加'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('samsung'):
|
||||
brand = '三星'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('realme'):
|
||||
brand = 'realme'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('lenovo'):
|
||||
brand = '联想'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('meizu'):
|
||||
brand = '魅族'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('motorola'):
|
||||
brand = 'motorola'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('nubia'):
|
||||
brand = 'nubia'
|
||||
else:
|
||||
brand = dev_name.split()[0]
|
||||
key = brand
|
||||
else:
|
||||
key = '无设备记录'
|
||||
|
||||
brand_stats[key] = brand_stats.get(key, 0) + 1
|
||||
|
||||
sorted_brands = sorted(brand_stats.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1])
|
||||
for brand, count in sorted_brands[:50]:
|
||||
pct = count / len(target_accounts) * 100
|
||||
print(f" {brand}: {count} ({pct:.1f}%)")
|
||||
|
||||
# 平板电脑品牌拆分
|
||||
print(f"\n--- 📱 平板电脑内部拆分 ({categories['平板电脑']}人) ---")
|
||||
tb = {}
|
||||
for aid in cat_users['平板电脑']:
|
||||
if aid in device_data:
|
||||
os_name = (device_data[aid]['device_os'] or '').strip()
|
||||
if os_name.startswith('iPad'):
|
||||
brand = 'iPad'
|
||||
else:
|
||||
dl = (device_data[aid]['device'] or '').strip().lower()
|
||||
if dl.startswith('huawei'):
|
||||
brand = '华为平板'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('honor'):
|
||||
brand = '荣耀平板'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('lenovo'):
|
||||
brand = '联想平板'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('samsung'):
|
||||
brand = '三星平板'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('xiaomi') or 'mi pad' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '小米平板'
|
||||
elif 'iplay' in dl:
|
||||
brand = 'ALLDOCUBE'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('teclast'):
|
||||
brand = 'Teclast'
|
||||
elif 'familymobilepad' in dl or (dl.startswith('hisense') and '32x8n' in dl):
|
||||
brand = '海信平板'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('cube') or dl.startswith('lecoo'):
|
||||
brand = '其他平板'
|
||||
else:
|
||||
brand = '其他平板'
|
||||
tb[brand] = tb.get(brand, 0) + 1
|
||||
for b, c in sorted(tb.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
|
||||
print(f" {b}: {c}")
|
||||
|
||||
# 学习机品牌拆分
|
||||
print(f"\n--- 📚 学习机内部拆分 ({categories['学习机']}人) ---")
|
||||
lm = {}
|
||||
for aid in cat_users['学习机']:
|
||||
if aid in device_data:
|
||||
dl = (device_data[aid]['device'] or '').strip().lower()
|
||||
if 'iflytek' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '讯飞'
|
||||
elif 'xiaodu' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '小度'
|
||||
elif 'seewo' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '希沃'
|
||||
elif 'eebbk' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '步步高'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('boe'):
|
||||
brand = '京东方'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('zyb'):
|
||||
brand = 'ZYB'
|
||||
elif 'youxuepai' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '优学派'
|
||||
elif 'readboy' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '读书郎'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('alps'):
|
||||
brand = 'alps平台'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('rockchip'):
|
||||
brand = 'rockchip平台'
|
||||
elif 'leleketang' in dl:
|
||||
brand = '乐乐课堂'
|
||||
else:
|
||||
# 取第一个词
|
||||
brand = dl.split()[0] if dl else 'unknown'
|
||||
lm[brand] = lm.get(brand, 0) + 1
|
||||
for b, c in sorted(lm.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
|
||||
print(f" {b}: {c}")
|
||||
|
||||
# 手机品牌拆分
|
||||
print(f"\n--- 📞 手机内部拆分 ({categories['手机']}人) ---")
|
||||
ph = {}
|
||||
for aid in cat_users['手机']:
|
||||
if aid in device_data:
|
||||
d = device_data[aid]
|
||||
os_name = (d['device_os'] or '').strip()
|
||||
dev_name = (d['device'] or '').strip()
|
||||
dl = dev_name.lower()
|
||||
if os_name.startswith('iOS'):
|
||||
brand = 'iPhone'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('huawei'):
|
||||
brand = '华为手机'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('honor'):
|
||||
brand = '荣耀手机'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('xiaomi'):
|
||||
brand = '小米'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('vivo'):
|
||||
brand = 'vivo'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('oppo'):
|
||||
brand = 'OPPO'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('oneplus'):
|
||||
brand = '一加'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('samsung'):
|
||||
brand = '三星'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('realme'):
|
||||
brand = 'realme'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('meizu'):
|
||||
brand = '魅族'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('motorola'):
|
||||
brand = 'motorola'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('nubia'):
|
||||
brand = 'nubia'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('lenovo'):
|
||||
brand = '联想手机'
|
||||
elif dl.startswith('zte'):
|
||||
brand = '中兴'
|
||||
else:
|
||||
brand = dl.split()[0] if dl else 'other'
|
||||
ph[brand] = ph.get(brand, 0) + 1
|
||||
for b, c in sorted(ph.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
|
||||
print(f" {b}: {c}")
|
||||
|
||||
cur.close()
|
||||
conn.close()
|
||||
512
scripts/revenue_forecast_2025.py
Normal file
512
scripts/revenue_forecast_2025.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,512 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""
|
||||
瓦拉英语 2026年6-12月收入预测
|
||||
基于：历史趋势 + 教育行业季节性 + 达人复播频次 + 新达人拓展
|
||||
"""
|
||||
import matplotlib
|
||||
matplotlib.use('Agg')
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mticker
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
from matplotlib.patches import FancyBboxPatch
|
||||
import warnings
|
||||
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# 1. 历史数据
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
months_hist = ['9月', '10月', '11月', '12月', '1月', '2月', '3月', '4月', '5月']
|
||||
months_hist_num = [9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17] # 2025-09=9, ... 2026-05=17
|
||||
|
||||
# 全渠道
|
||||
gmv_hist = [617592, 812179, 493983, 395373, 397533, 415884, 2879026, 4970605, 1894740]
|
||||
gsv_hist = [369716, 506534, 294240, 301432, 311279, 205390, 2136625, 2919674, 1390617]
|
||||
refund_hist = [247876, 305645, 199743, 93941, 86254, 210494, 742401, 2050931, 504123]
|
||||
orders_hist = [313, 421, 462, 233, 222, 216, 958, 1665, 623]
|
||||
users_hist = [308, 412, 400, 229, 216, 212, 906, 1552, 588]
|
||||
|
||||
# 达人直播
|
||||
daren_gmv = [598899, 765617, 452373, 177911, 217891, 353823, 2521415, 4497095, 1604719]
|
||||
daren_orders = [301, 383, 227, 89, 109, 177, 767, 1429, 490]
|
||||
daren_count = [7, 10, 15, 4, 6, 3, 10, 25, 17]
|
||||
daren_new = [7, 7, 8, 0, 2, 2, 2, 20, 7]
|
||||
daren_repeat = [0, 3, 7, 4, 4, 1, 8, 5, 10]
|
||||
daren_refund = [39.5, 38.9, 43.6, 25.8, 29.4, 55.9, 27.9, 44.8, 30.6]
|
||||
|
||||
# 非达人渠道
|
||||
non_daren_gmv = [g - d for g, d in zip(gmv_hist, daren_gmv)]
|
||||
# = [18693, 46562, 41610, 217462, 179642, 62061, 357611, 473510, 290021]
|
||||
|
||||
# 新注册用户
|
||||
new_users_hist = [1529, 2412, 2971, 3523, 1938, 1743, 4166, 5668, 2609]
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# 2. 教育行业季节性因子
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# 基于中国在线教育行业规律：
|
||||
# - 6月: 期末/中高考，家长关注点在考试，教育消费下降 (0.75)
|
||||
# - 7月: 暑假开始，需求爆发 (1.4)
|
||||
# - 8月: 暑假高峰 (1.5)
|
||||
# - 9月: 开学季，需求稳健 (1.0)
|
||||
# - 10月: 国庆黄金周 + 中秋，促销期 (1.15)
|
||||
# - 11月: 双11大促 (1.25)
|
||||
# - 12月: 年末冲刺 + 寒假预售 (1.05)
|
||||
|
||||
seasonal_factor = {
|
||||
6: 0.75, # 考试季
|
||||
7: 1.40, # 暑假启动
|
||||
8: 1.50, # 暑假高峰
|
||||
9: 1.00, # 开学季
|
||||
10: 1.15, # 国庆+双11预热
|
||||
11: 1.25, # 双11
|
||||
12: 1.05, # 年末寒假预售
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# 3. 预测模型
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
def forecast_revenue():
|
||||
"""三层预测模型"""
|
||||
months_fc = ['6月', '7月', '8月', '9月', '10月', '11月', '12月']
|
||||
months_fc_num = [18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24] # 2026-06=18
|
||||
|
||||
results = {'conservative': {}, 'base': {}, 'optimistic': {}}
|
||||
|
||||
for scenario, params in [
|
||||
('conservative', {
|
||||
'core_daren_base': 650000, # 核心达人月均贡献(晚柠+念妈)
|
||||
'star_daren_base': 250000, # 学霸系月均贡献
|
||||
'other_repeat_base': 80000, # 其他复发达人月均
|
||||
'new_daren_per_month': 4, # 每月新达人
|
||||
'new_daren_first_gmv': 60000, # 新达人首场平均GMV
|
||||
'new_daren_retention': 0.25, # 新达人次月留存率
|
||||
'non_daren_growth': 1.05, # 非达人渠道月环比
|
||||
'non_daren_base': 290000, # 5月非达人基准
|
||||
'refund_rate_target': 0.38, # 目标退费率
|
||||
}),
|
||||
('base', {
|
||||
'core_daren_base': 750000,
|
||||
'star_daren_base': 350000,
|
||||
'other_repeat_base': 150000,
|
||||
'new_daren_per_month': 6,
|
||||
'new_daren_first_gmv': 80000,
|
||||
'new_daren_retention': 0.35,
|
||||
'non_daren_growth': 1.10,
|
||||
'non_daren_base': 290000,
|
||||
'refund_rate_target': 0.35,
|
||||
}),
|
||||
('optimistic', {
|
||||
'core_daren_base': 900000,
|
||||
'star_daren_base': 500000,
|
||||
'other_repeat_base': 250000,
|
||||
'new_daren_per_month': 8,
|
||||
'new_daren_first_gmv': 100000,
|
||||
'new_daren_retention': 0.45,
|
||||
'non_daren_growth': 1.15,
|
||||
'non_daren_base': 290000,
|
||||
'refund_rate_target': 0.32,
|
||||
}),
|
||||
]:
|
||||
# Initialize new daren pipeline
|
||||
# Simulate: new darens from past months that may return
|
||||
# May had 7 new darens, assume they contribute in future
|
||||
new_daren_pool = [] # list of (month_index, gmv_first)
|
||||
|
||||
gmv_pred = []
|
||||
gsv_pred = []
|
||||
|
||||
for i, m in enumerate(months_fc_num):
|
||||
month_idx = i + 1 # 1-7
|
||||
season = seasonal_factor[m % 12 or 12]
|
||||
actual_month = m % 12 or 12
|
||||
|
||||
# === 达人直播预测 ===
|
||||
# Core darens (晚柠, 念妈) - stable monthly
|
||||
core = params['core_daren_base'] * season
|
||||
|
||||
# Star darens (学霸系) - more variable, season-dependent
|
||||
star = params['star_daren_base'] * season
|
||||
|
||||
# Other repeat darens - growing slowly
|
||||
other_repeat = params['other_repeat_base'] * (1 + 0.05 * month_idx) * season
|
||||
|
||||
# New darens this month
|
||||
new_this_month = params['new_daren_per_month'] * season / seasonal_factor.get(actual_month, 1.0)
|
||||
# But season mainly affects GMV per daren, not count
|
||||
new_this_month = max(2, int(new_this_month * 0.8 + 0.5))
|
||||
new_gmv = new_this_month * params['new_daren_first_gmv'] * season
|
||||
|
||||
# Returning new darens from pool
|
||||
returning_gmv = 0
|
||||
returning_count = 0
|
||||
still_active = []
|
||||
for nm, gmv_first in new_daren_pool:
|
||||
if np.random.random() < params['new_daren_retention']:
|
||||
# Returning daren, GMV typically 50-80% of first
|
||||
retention_factor = 0.6 + 0.2 * np.random.random()
|
||||
returning_gmv += gmv_first * retention_factor * season
|
||||
returning_count += 1
|
||||
still_active.append((nm, gmv_first * retention_factor))
|
||||
|
||||
# Add new darens to pool for future
|
||||
new_daren_pool = still_active
|
||||
for _ in range(new_this_month):
|
||||
new_daren_pool.append((month_idx, params['new_daren_first_gmv']))
|
||||
|
||||
# Total daren GMV
|
||||
daren_gmv_pred = core + star + other_repeat + new_gmv + returning_gmv
|
||||
|
||||
# === 非达人渠道预测 ===
|
||||
non_daren_pred = params['non_daren_base'] * (params['non_daren_growth'] ** month_idx) * season
|
||||
|
||||
# === 总计 ===
|
||||
total_gmv = daren_gmv_pred + non_daren_pred
|
||||
|
||||
# Apply refund rate to get GSV
|
||||
# Jun-Sep: higher refund from summer rush;
|
||||
# Oct-Dec: lower refund (双11/年末更理性)
|
||||
if actual_month in [6, 7, 8]:
|
||||
refund_adj = params['refund_rate_target'] + 0.05
|
||||
elif actual_month in [11]:
|
||||
refund_adj = params['refund_rate_target'] - 0.03 # 双11促销退费略高但可控
|
||||
else:
|
||||
refund_adj = params['refund_rate_target']
|
||||
|
||||
total_gsv = total_gmv * (1 - refund_adj)
|
||||
|
||||
gmv_pred.append(round(total_gmv))
|
||||
gsv_pred.append(round(total_gsv))
|
||||
|
||||
results[scenario] = {
|
||||
'gmv': gmv_pred,
|
||||
'gsv': gsv_pred,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return results, months_fc
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# 4. 执行预测 & 生成图表
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
np.random.seed(42)
|
||||
results, months_fc = forecast_revenue()
|
||||
|
||||
# 打印预测表
|
||||
print("=" * 90)
|
||||
print("📊 瓦拉英语 2026年6-12月收入预测")
|
||||
print("=" * 90)
|
||||
print()
|
||||
print(f"{'月份':<8} {'保守-GMV':>12} {'保守-GSV':>12} {'基准-GMV':>12} {'基准-GSV':>12} {'乐观-GMV':>12} {'乐观-GSV':>12}")
|
||||
print("-" * 90)
|
||||
total = {'c_gmv': 0, 'c_gsv': 0, 'b_gmv': 0, 'b_gsv': 0, 'o_gmv': 0, 'o_gsv': 0}
|
||||
for i, m in enumerate(months_fc):
|
||||
c_gmv = results['conservative']['gmv'][i]
|
||||
c_gsv = results['conservative']['gsv'][i]
|
||||
b_gmv = results['base']['gmv'][i]
|
||||
b_gsv = results['base']['gsv'][i]
|
||||
o_gmv = results['optimistic']['gmv'][i]
|
||||
o_gsv = results['optimistic']['gsv'][i]
|
||||
print(f"{m:<8} ¥{c_gmv:>10,} ¥{c_gsv:>10,} ¥{b_gmv:>10,} ¥{b_gsv:>10,} ¥{o_gmv:>10,} ¥{o_gsv:>10,}")
|
||||
total['c_gmv'] += c_gmv
|
||||
total['c_gsv'] += c_gsv
|
||||
total['b_gmv'] += b_gmv
|
||||
total['b_gsv'] += b_gsv
|
||||
total['o_gmv'] += o_gmv
|
||||
total['o_gsv'] += o_gsv
|
||||
print("-" * 90)
|
||||
print(f"{'合计':<8} ¥{total['c_gmv']:>10,} ¥{total['c_gsv']:>10,} ¥{total['b_gmv']:>10,} ¥{total['b_gsv']:>10,} ¥{total['o_gmv']:>10,} ¥{total['o_gsv']:>10,}")
|
||||
print()
|
||||
|
||||
# 对比历史
|
||||
hist_total_gmv = sum(gmv_hist)
|
||||
hist_total_gsv = sum(gsv_hist)
|
||||
print(f"历史累计 (2025.09-2026.05): GMV ¥{hist_total_gmv:,.0f} | GSV ¥{hist_total_gsv:,.0f}")
|
||||
print(f"月均 (9个月): GMV ¥{hist_total_gmv/9:,.0f} | GSV ¥{hist_total_gsv/9:,.0f}")
|
||||
print()
|
||||
print("预测 vs 历史对比:")
|
||||
for s, label in [('conservative', '保守'), ('base', '基准'), ('optimistic', '乐观')]:
|
||||
t_gmv = total[f'{s[0]}_gmv']
|
||||
t_gsv = total[f'{s[0]}_gsv']
|
||||
print(f" {label}: 月均 GMV ¥{t_gmv/7:,.0f} | 7个月 GMV ¥{t_gmv:,.0f} ({t_gmv/hist_total_gmv*100:.0f}% of 历史9个月)")
|
||||
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
# 5. 生成可视化图表
|
||||
# ============================================================
|
||||
plt.rcParams['font.family'] = ['DejaVu Sans']
|
||||
plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
|
||||
|
||||
# Color palette
|
||||
colors = {
|
||||
'hist': '#5B9BD5',
|
||||
'cons': '#ED7D31',
|
||||
'base': '#4472C4',
|
||||
'opt': '#70AD47',
|
||||
'gsv': '#A5A5A5',
|
||||
'bg': '#F8F9FA',
|
||||
'grid': '#E0E0E0',
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 24))
|
||||
fig.suptitle('瓦拉英语 2026年6-12月 收入预测报告', fontsize=22, fontweight='bold', y=0.98)
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Chart 1: 历史趋势 + 三种预测场景
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(3, 2, 1)
|
||||
all_months = months_hist + months_fc
|
||||
all_x = list(range(1, len(all_months) + 1))
|
||||
|
||||
# Historical GMV bars
|
||||
bars_hist = ax1.bar(range(1, 10), [g/10000 for g in gmv_hist], color=colors['hist'],
|
||||
alpha=0.8, label='历史 GMV', width=0.6)
|
||||
# Historical GSV line
|
||||
ax1.plot(range(1, 10), [g/10000 for g in gsv_hist], 'o-', color=colors['gsv'],
|
||||
linewidth=2, markersize=6, label='历史 GSV')
|
||||
|
||||
# Forecast GMV (base scenario)
|
||||
fc_x = list(range(10, 17))
|
||||
ax1.bar(fc_x, [g/10000 for g in results['base']['gmv']], color='#FFC000',
|
||||
alpha=0.6, label='预测 GMV(基准)', width=0.6)
|
||||
ax1.plot(fc_x, [g/10000 for g in results['base']['gsv']], 's--', color='#C55A11',
|
||||
linewidth=2, markersize=6, label='预测 GSV(基准)')
|
||||
|
||||
# Separator line
|
||||
ax1.axvline(x=9.5, color='red', linestyle='--', linewidth=1.5, alpha=0.5)
|
||||
ax1.text(9.5, ax1.get_ylim()[1]*0.95, '← 历史 | 预测 →', ha='center', fontsize=9, color='red')
|
||||
|
||||
# Conservative & Optimistic ranges
|
||||
ax1.fill_between(fc_x,
|
||||
[g/10000 for g in results['conservative']['gmv']],
|
||||
[g/10000 for g in results['optimistic']['gmv']],
|
||||
alpha=0.15, color='green', label='预测区间(保守-乐观)')
|
||||
|
||||
ax1.set_xticks(all_x)
|
||||
ax1.set_xticklabels(all_months, rotation=0)
|
||||
ax1.set_ylabel('万元', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax1.set_title('月度 GMV/GSV 趋势与预测', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax1.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax1.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax1.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda x, _: f'¥{x:.0f}万'))
|
||||
|
||||
# Value labels on bars
|
||||
for bar, val in zip(bars_hist, gmv_hist):
|
||||
ax1.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, bar.get_height() + 1,
|
||||
f'¥{val/10000:.0f}万', ha='center', fontsize=7, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Chart 2: 三场景月度对比
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(3, 2, 2)
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(months_fc))
|
||||
width = 0.25
|
||||
|
||||
bars1 = ax2.bar(x - width, [g/10000 for g in results['conservative']['gmv']],
|
||||
width, color=colors['cons'], alpha=0.85, label='保守 GMV')
|
||||
bars2 = ax2.bar(x, [g/10000 for g in results['base']['gmv']],
|
||||
width, color=colors['base'], alpha=0.85, label='基准 GMV')
|
||||
bars3 = ax2.bar(x + width, [g/10000 for g in results['optimistic']['gmv']],
|
||||
width, color=colors['opt'], alpha=0.85, label='乐观 GMV')
|
||||
|
||||
# GSV lines
|
||||
ax2.plot(x - width, [g/10000 for g in results['conservative']['gsv']],
|
||||
'v-', color='#C55A11', markersize=6, linewidth=1.5, label='保守 GSV')
|
||||
ax2.plot(x, [g/10000 for g in results['base']['gsv']],
|
||||
's-', color='#2F5496', markersize=6, linewidth=1.5, label='基准 GSV')
|
||||
ax2.plot(x + width, [g/10000 for g in results['optimistic']['gsv']],
|
||||
'^-', color='#375623', markersize=6, linewidth=1.5, label='乐观 GSV')
|
||||
|
||||
ax2.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax2.set_xticklabels(months_fc)
|
||||
ax2.set_ylabel('万元', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax2.set_title('6-12月 三场景月度对比', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax2.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=7, ncol=2)
|
||||
ax2.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax2.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda x, _: f'¥{x:.0f}万'))
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Chart 3: 渠道贡献拆解（基准场景）
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
ax3 = fig.add_subplot(3, 2, 3)
|
||||
|
||||
# Calculate channel breakdown for base scenario
|
||||
channels_data = {
|
||||
'核心达人\n(晚柠+念妈)': [],
|
||||
'学霸系达人': [],
|
||||
'其他复发达人': [],
|
||||
'新拓达人': [],
|
||||
'非达人渠道': [],
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
season = [seasonal_factor.get(m % 12 or 12, 1.0) for m in [18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24]]
|
||||
base_params = {
|
||||
'core_daren_base': 750000,
|
||||
'star_daren_base': 350000,
|
||||
'other_repeat_base': 150000,
|
||||
'new_daren_per_month': 6,
|
||||
'new_daren_first_gmv': 80000,
|
||||
'non_daren_growth': 1.10,
|
||||
'non_daren_base': 290000,
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
for i, s in enumerate(season):
|
||||
core = base_params['core_daren_base'] * s / 10000
|
||||
star = base_params['star_daren_base'] * s / 10000
|
||||
other = base_params['other_repeat_base'] * (1 + 0.05 * (i+1)) * s / 10000
|
||||
new_d = base_params['new_daren_per_month'] * base_params['new_daren_first_gmv'] * s / 10000
|
||||
non_d = base_params['non_daren_base'] * (base_params['non_daren_growth'] ** (i+1)) * s / 10000
|
||||
|
||||
channels_data['核心达人\n(晚柠+念妈)'].append(core)
|
||||
channels_data['学霸系达人'].append(star)
|
||||
channels_data['其他复发达人'].append(other)
|
||||
channels_data['新拓达人'].append(new_d)
|
||||
channels_data['非达人渠道'].append(non_d)
|
||||
|
||||
x_fc = np.arange(len(months_fc))
|
||||
bottom = np.zeros(len(months_fc))
|
||||
channel_colors = ['#1F4E79', '#2E75B6', '#9DC3E6', '#BDD7EE', '#F4B183']
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (name, vals) in enumerate(channels_data.items()):
|
||||
ax3.bar(x_fc, vals, 0.6, bottom=bottom, label=name, color=channel_colors[i], alpha=0.85)
|
||||
bottom += np.array(vals)
|
||||
|
||||
# Add total labels
|
||||
for i, (m, total_val) in enumerate(zip(months_fc, bottom)):
|
||||
ax3.text(i, total_val + 2, f'¥{total_val:.0f}万', ha='center', fontsize=8, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
ax3.set_xticks(x_fc)
|
||||
ax3.set_xticklabels(months_fc)
|
||||
ax3.set_ylabel('万元', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax3.set_title('基准场景：GMV 渠道贡献拆解', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax3.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax3.grid(axis='y', alpha=0.3)
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Chart 4: 季节性因子 & 达人运营指标
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
ax4 = fig.add_subplot(3, 2, 4)
|
||||
|
||||
# Top: Seasonal factors
|
||||
months_all_label = ['6月', '7月', '8月', '9月', '10月', '11月', '12月']
|
||||
sf_values = [seasonal_factor[m % 12 or 12] for m in [18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24]]
|
||||
# Normalize to percentage
|
||||
sf_pct = [(v - 1) * 100 for v in sf_values]
|
||||
bar_colors_sf = ['#D64545' if v < 0 else '#4472C4' if v <= 0.15 else '#70AD47' for v in sf_pct]
|
||||
|
||||
ax4_2 = ax4.twinx()
|
||||
|
||||
bars_sf = ax4.bar(months_all_label, sf_values, color=bar_colors_sf, alpha=0.3, width=0.6, label='季节性因子')
|
||||
ax4.axhline(y=1.0, color='gray', linestyle='--', linewidth=1, alpha=0.5)
|
||||
|
||||
# Bottom: Daren metrics
|
||||
daren_metrics_label = ['达人\n总开播数', '复发达人\n占比', '新达人\n首场GMV', '非达人\n渠道占比']
|
||||
daren_metrics_value = [25, 55, 8, 18] # projections
|
||||
ax4_2.bar(daren_metrics_label, daren_metrics_value, color=['#2E75B6', '#70AD47', '#FFC000', '#ED7D31'],
|
||||
alpha=0.7, width=0.5)
|
||||
|
||||
ax4.set_ylabel('季节性因子', fontsize=11, color='#4472C4')
|
||||
ax4_2.set_ylabel('运营指标', fontsize=11, color='#ED7D31')
|
||||
ax4.set_title('季节性因子 & 关键运营指标', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax4.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='#4472C4')
|
||||
ax4_2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='#ED7D31')
|
||||
ax4.set_ylim(0, 2.0)
|
||||
|
||||
# Add value labels
|
||||
for bar, val in zip(bars_sf, sf_values):
|
||||
ax4.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, bar.get_height() + 0.02,
|
||||
f'{val:.2f}', ha='center', fontsize=8, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Chart 5: 历史退款率 & 预测改善
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
ax5 = fig.add_subplot(3, 2, 5)
|
||||
|
||||
# Historical refund rate (whole channel)
|
||||
hist_refund_rate = [r*100/g for r, g in zip(refund_hist, gmv_hist)]
|
||||
hist_daren_refund = daren_refund
|
||||
|
||||
x_hist = range(1, 10)
|
||||
ax5.plot(x_hist, hist_refund_rate, 'o-', color='#D64545', linewidth=2, markersize=8, label='全渠道退款率')
|
||||
ax5.plot(x_hist, hist_daren_refund, 's--', color='#ED7D31', linewidth=2, markersize=6, label='达人直播退款率')
|
||||
|
||||
# Forecast refund rate targets
|
||||
x_fc_all = range(10, 17)
|
||||
for scenario_name, target in [('保守', 0.38), ('基准', 0.35), ('乐观', 0.32)]:
|
||||
adj_rates = []
|
||||
for m in [18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24]:
|
||||
actual = m % 12 or 12
|
||||
if actual in [6, 7, 8]:
|
||||
adj_rates.append((target + 0.05) * 100)
|
||||
elif actual == 11:
|
||||
adj_rates.append((target - 0.03) * 100)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
adj_rates.append(target * 100)
|
||||
ls = '-' if scenario_name == '基准' else '--'
|
||||
ax5.plot(x_fc_all, adj_rates, ls, marker='s', linewidth=2, markersize=5,
|
||||
label=f'预测退款率({scenario_name})', alpha=0.8)
|
||||
|
||||
ax5.axvline(x=9.5, color='gray', linestyle='--', linewidth=1, alpha=0.5)
|
||||
ax5.set_xticks(list(x_hist) + list(x_fc_all))
|
||||
ax5.set_xticklabels(months_hist + months_fc, rotation=0)
|
||||
ax5.set_ylabel('%', fontsize=11)
|
||||
ax5.set_title('退款率趋势 & 预测目标', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
|
||||
ax5.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=8)
|
||||
ax5.grid(alpha=0.3)
|
||||
ax5.set_ylim(0, 65)
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Chart 6: 累计收入预测 vs 历史 Key Metrics 仪表盘
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
ax6 = fig.add_subplot(3, 2, 6)
|
||||
ax6.axis('off')
|
||||
|
||||
# Summary text
|
||||
summary_text = f"""
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
📊 预测总结与关键假设
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
|
||||
📈 预测区间（2026年6-12月，7个月）
|
||||
┌──────────┬──────────────┬──────────────┐
|
||||
│ 场景 │ 累计 GMV │ 累计 GSV │
|
||||
├──────────┼──────────────┼──────────────┤
|
||||
│ 保守 │ ¥{total['c_gmv']:>10,} │ ¥{total['c_gsv']:>10,} │
|
||||
│ 基准 │ ¥{total['b_gmv']:>10,} │ ¥{total['b_gsv']:>10,} │
|
||||
│ 乐观 │ ¥{total['o_gmv']:>10,} │ ¥{total['o_gsv']:>10,} │
|
||||
└──────────┴──────────────┴──────────────┘
|
||||
|
||||
🔑 关键假设（基准场景）
|
||||
• 核心达人：晚柠/念妈 月均 GMV ¥75万
|
||||
• 学霸系：学霸老王/三人行 月均 GMV ¥35万
|
||||
• 每月新拓达人 6 位，首场均价 ¥8万
|
||||
• 新达人次月留存率 35%
|
||||
• 非达人渠道（端内+销售）月环比 +10%
|
||||
• 目标退费率 35%（当前波动 30-45%）
|
||||
|
||||
📅 季节性峰值
|
||||
• 7-8月暑假高峰（因子 1.4-1.5）
|
||||
• 11月双11大促（因子 1.25）
|
||||
• 6月考试季低谷（因子 0.75）
|
||||
|
||||
⚠️ 风险因素
|
||||
• 达人退款率波动（2月曾达 55.9%）
|
||||
• 学霸系达人合作可持续性不确定
|
||||
• 行业淡季（6月）收入可能低于预测
|
||||
• 新达人质量参差不齐
|
||||
|
||||
🎯 建议
|
||||
• 6月重点：储备暑假达人资源，减少开播
|
||||
• 7-8月重点：全力投放，学霸系+新达人密集排期
|
||||
• 9-10月：保持节奏，端内渠道发力
|
||||
• 11月：双11大促，全渠道协同
|
||||
• 加强达人退款管控，目标控制在35%以内
|
||||
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
ax6.text(0.02, 0.98, summary_text, transform=ax6.transAxes, fontsize=9,
|
||||
verticalalignment='top', fontfamily='monospace',
|
||||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#F0F4F8', alpha=0.8))
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0, 1, 0.95])
|
||||
plt.savefig('/root/.openclaw/workspace/output/revenue_forecast_2026.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight',
|
||||
facecolor='white', edgecolor='none')
|
||||
print("\n✅ 图表已保存: /root/.openclaw/workspace/output/revenue_forecast_2026.png")
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user